strangefootball

Week 16 Predictions

2009-12-27T03:30:20Z

San Diego Chargers (11-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-7)

As much as I hate to say it, I don't think the Tennessee defense can stop Phillip Rivers' passing game. Or his arrogance and rudeness.

San Diego 27, Tennessee 20

Buffalo Bills (5-9) at Atlanta Falcons (7-7)

Buffalo has given up. That's the only explanation I have.

Atlanta 23, Buffalo 10

Kansas City Chiefs (3-11) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-5)

This should be a blowout, but Cincy seems to find a way to avoid those. I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt this time, but I'm not confident.

Cincinnati 35, Kansas City 14

Oakland Raiders (5-9) at Cleveland Browns (3-10)

From the sidelines in the closing minutes of the game, Charlie Frye is going to watch Derek Anderson struggle to complete a pass, and he's going to think, "And I was traded away after one game?"

Cleveland 38, Oakland 28

Seattle Seahawks (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (9-5)

I'm amazed at how Matt Hasselbeck seems to be getting worse each week.

Green Bay 42, Seattle 13

Houston Texans (7-7) at Miami Dolphins (7-7)

This is a tough one, but I still think Matt Schaub is having a Pro Bowl year, and Andre Johnson is one of the three best receivers in the league.

Houston 27, Miami 20

Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)

Yes, Pittsburgh has shown signs of life, but I'm not sure their defense is going to stay consistent for two more weeks.

Baltimore 24, Pittsburgh 21

Carolina Panthers (6-8) at New York Giants (8-6)

Based on what I've seen out of the Giants lately, I am not at all confident about my pick here. Not one bit.

New York Giants 17, Carolina 14

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-7) at New England Patriots (9-5)

I would love to see the Jaguars put together a full game on the road in December, but I don't think they've put together a full game all year. A lot will depend on the status of MJD.

New England 24, Jacksonville 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) at New Orleans Saints (13-1)

No contest.

New Orleans 35, Tampa Bay 17

St. Louis Rams (1-13) at Arizona Cardinals (9-5)

Should be no contest, and I'm predicting it as such, but sometimes the Cardinals really make me question what they're doing.

Arizona 21, St. Louis 3

Detroit Lions (2-12) at San Francisco 49ers (6-8)

Both teams are holding out hope for next year. Oddly, I think the team that finds hope in this game is the one that will stay about the same next season, while the team that loses stands a chance of real improvement.

San Francisco 28, Detroit 13

Denver Broncos (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)

I just have this gut feeling that McDaniels is going to try some things that he shouldn't try... gimmick/gadget/trick plays, fourth-and-long attempts in his own territory, and so on.

Philadelphia 34, Denver 24

New York Jets (7-7) at Indianapolis Colts (14-0)

This game may ride very heavily on the cornerbacks -- on both teams.

Indianapolis 27, New York Jets 20

Dallas Cowboys (9-5) at Washington Redskins (4-10)

Sure, Dallas might fall apart. Sure, the Skins might pull it together. But even for a divisional rivalry, I don't think this will be a tough game for Romo.

Dallas 27, Washington 18

Minnesota Vikings (11-3) at Chicago Bears (5-9)

The Vikings aren't looking great right now, but the Bears haven't looked great yet.

Minnesota 21, Chicago 13

Summary:
San Diego 27, Tennessee 20
Atlanta 23, Buffalo 10
Cincinnati 35, Kansas City 14
Cleveland 38, Oakland 28
Green Bay 42, Seattle 13
Houston 27, Miami 20
Baltimore 24, Pittsburgh 21
New York Giants 17, Carolina 14
New England 24, Jacksonville 17
New Orleans 35, Tampa Bay 17
Arizona 21, St. Louis 3
San Francisco 28, Detroit 13
Philadelphia 34, Denver 24
Indianapolis 27, New York Jets 20
Dallas 27, Washington 18
Minnesota 21, Chicago 13

Week 16 Quick Pick

2009-12-25T22:42:11Z

More later...

San Diego Chargers (11-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-7)

As much as I hate to say it, I don't think the Tennessee defense can stop Phillip Rivers' passing game. Or his arrogance and rudeness.

San Diego 27, Tennessee 20

How Wrong Was David? Week 15

2009-12-22T19:27:44Z

How Wrong Was David?
Week of Bad Officiating Edition

Before this week, I needed to be 13-of-16 for each of the final three weeks in order to hit 70% on the season. Now, I need to be 15-of-16 in each of the final two weeks. Something tells me that ain't happening.

Prediction: Indianapolis 20, Jacksonville 13
Reality: Indianapolis 35, Jacksonville 31
Commentary: I wouldn't mind if the next couple of games were a little less exciting, but just as full of WIN. In other news, Matt Millen is just as bad a commentator as he was a GM. When he was last a commentator, he apparently was better – because so many people weren't overly educated on what they're seeing. But as the Football Outsiders note, he can't seem to correctly call anything but a double A-gap blitz, and he thinks every coverage is "two deep, man under." And his horribleness (horribility? horriblocity?) seems to be rubbing off on Bob Papa, who I used to like. At least Papa had the grace to acknowledge his math error after he repeatedly called a 31-28 score a "four-point lead" for the Jaguars.

Prediction: New Orleans 34, Dallas 20
Reality: Dallas 24, New Orleans 17
Commentary: I don't know who does the AP write-ups – I'm assuming several different writers are involved – but one of them keeps doing things like comparing a game to "Sex and the City" or using words like "lagniappe." Don't get me wrong – I'm not opposed to writers branching out beyond their area to make comparisons and references. But I think you should know your target audience. (This is also my argument against many of the halftime performers of various football events. I am amazed how many sportscasters that I respect really, really loved Prince and are criticizing choices like Tom Petty, the Rolling Stones, and the Who. Heck, most football fans I know would be fine watching a boxing match. Or midgets with paint guns on go-karts.) As far as the game goes, I'd like someone to tell me why it would be a bad idea to spread the rumor that Bushrod had been against his own team, because he certainly looked as if he were trying to lose. And I'm guessing the refs were in on it, considering how many pass interference calls they deliberately did not make.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Chicago 10
Reality: Baltimore 31, Chicago 7
Commentary: Cutler throws three picks and gets pulled. Hanie comes in as the backup, and promptly throws a pick. I know Lovie still has a lot of contract to go and the Bears are careful with their money, but at some point don't they have to consider when to cut their losses?

Prediction: New England 20, Buffalo 14
Reality: New England 17, Buffalo 10
Commentary: The Patriots' secondary is fully exploitable, but Buffalo didn't really go for that (probably considering Ryan Fitzpatrick's limited bag of tricks). However, they did reveal that the Patriots' defensive line is a mess when their two best defenders (Wilfork and Warren) are out. New England is all but guaranteed a division championship, but if I were them I'd be nervous about any opponent. Any opponent.

Prediction: Arizona 38, Detroit 10
Reality: Arizona 31, Detroit 24
Commentary: I might be wrong, but I'm already thinking about penciling in the Lions for five or six wins next year. They definitely had their problems in this one (Northcutt's dropped punt, poor two-minute drill strategy), but they can seriously attack a weak pass rush defense. Cliff Avril would be an upgrade for at least ten teams at this point, and Maurice Morris is a completely viable "change-of-pace" back. They need to upgrade their secondary (as Bill Barnwell said, "…the Cardinals scored on a lob to Larry Fitzgerald with Will James in coverage. Yes – perhaps literally the worst cornerback in the league versus its best wide receiver"), but Jim Schwartz is showing that his ability to come up with interesting and effective pass rush schemes has some real promise.

Prediction: Houston 42, St. Louis 17
Reality: Houston 16, St. Louis 13
Commentary: Games like this are the reason people can't yet take the Texans seriously as a playoff contender, despite the Pro Bowl kind of year Schaub is having.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Miami 21
Reality: Tennessee 27, Miami 24 (OT)
Commentary: Chad Henne has some promise, but he has to stop throwing picks to a bad pass defense. Until then, Miami will always be an also-ran.

Prediction: Cleveland 30, Kansas City 27
Reality: Cleveland 41, Kansas City 34
Commentary: Best game of the week, if you hate defense! To all those who got tired of hearing me say that Jerome Harrison was an excellent running back if only Mangini would let him take the field, I feel somewhat vindicated. Although it's tempered by the knowledge that it was against the Chiefs.

Prediction: New York Jets 23, Atlanta 14
Reality: Atlanta 10, New York Jets 7
Commentary: I have to ask… why is a defensive genius like Rex Ryan playing that kind of zone coverage that late in the game with the opponents in the red zone and Antonio Gates lined up for a turnout? I mean, sure, great job covering Roddy White on the back line, sure. And if they'd gone with a slant like they did against Tampa Bay, they might have managed to apply a little more pressure. But seriously? Zone coverage on a fourth-and-six against a team with one of the greatest tight ends in the game?

Prediction: Philadelphia 31, San Francisco 24
Reality: Philadelphia 27, San Francisco 13
Commentary: Vick got hurt. No word on whether anyone tried to drown him, electrocute him, or slam him on the ground until he died. Yes, I'm still angry with him. I'm trying to be a good forgiving Christian, but if it were easy everyone would do it.

Prediction: Denver 41, Oakland 12
Reality: Oakland 20, Denver 19
Commentary: I know there's no way to make this a feasible system, but it drives me crazy when a penalty is less painful to a team than the play that it prevented. In this case, Brandon Stokely was four yards away from giving the Broncos a potential 10-point lead when he was horse-collared. The penalty only gave two yards, and the Broncos failed to get into the end zone, settled for a field goal, and lost a few minutes later by one point. I wish there could be a way to have certain types of fouls that were classified as particularly inappropriate methods of tackling – twisting the facemask, horse-collars, and spearing come to mind – and if those occurred on a last-ditch effort to prevent a touchdown, the touchdown would count. I'm sure there are a million reasons this is a bad idea. Don't worry, I won't get onto a soapbox.

Prediction: Cincinnati 31, San Diego 30
Reality: San Diego 27, Cincinnati 24
Commentary: Lots of penalties called, but it seemed like the wrong ones. Violent plays everywhere with no flags, but lots of little ticky-tack procedural stuff. And not even the BIG procedural stuff, like illegal substitutions. I am not impressed with referee Carl Cheffers and his crew.

Prediction: Green Bay 27, Pittsburgh 17
Reality: Pittsburgh 37, Green Bay 36
Commentary: Both defenses are top-four defenses. Explain this score. I dare you.

Prediction: Seattle 24, Tampa Bay 13
Reality: Tampa Bay 24, Seattle 7
Commentary: The AP write-up talks about Josh Freeman calmly looking Raheem Morris in the eye after throwing an interception and saying, "I got it," and Morris replying, "Go get it," and then of course they won. I want to know how many times exchanges like this occur and the result is a dismal failure. Incidentally, games like this may kill Matt Hasselbeck's career.

Prediction: Minnesota 34, Carolina 10
Reality: Carolina 26, Minnesota 7
Commentary: I'm tired of the story being the argument between Childress and Favre. I want someone to go in-depth into exactly what the Vikings did wrong in the fourth quarter. I know there were issues with pass protection, and I know E.J. Henderson was missing, but seriously – that's the info I want explained.

Prediction: New York Giants 24, Washington 23
Reality: New York Giants 45, Washington 12
Commentary: This game wasn't even almost interesting.

Straight-up win/loss:
strangefootball
9-for-16 (56.25%)
YTD: 150-for-224 (66.96%)
SI's Peter King
11-for-16 (68.75%)
YTD: 151-for-224 (67.41%)

Against the spread:
strangefootball
5-for-16 (31.25%)
YTD: 122-for-224 (54.46%)
SI's Peter King
8-for-16 (50.00%)
YTD: 114-for-224 (50.89%)

Week 15 Predictions

2009-12-17T23:09:15Z

Indianapolis Colts (13-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6)

Yes, a perfect season would be nice. But I think the Colts go for the jugular (the Jagular?) here because they don't want to face these guys in the post-season. They're already tired of seeing them twice a year.

Indianapolis 20, Jacksonville 13

Dallas Cowboys (9-4) at New Orleans Saints (13-0)

I will be amazed if DeMarcus Ware is back on the field for the Cowboys just yet. And without him, I think the Saints have a lot more options for Drew Brees.

New Orleans 34, Dallas 20

Chicago Bears (5-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-6)

The Ravens are giving up less than 13 points per game at home. Jay Cutler is throwing roughly infinity interceptions.

Baltimore 24, Chicago 10

New England Patriots (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-8)

Cold weather won't slow down the Pats' run game. Neither will the Bills' D-Line. Both will limit the passing game, sure, and so will the minor injuries Brady has, but New England should still win it on the ground.

New England 20, Buffalo 14

Arizona Cardinals (8-5) at Detroit Lions (2-11)

Somehow I think the Cards will fare a wee bit better against a horrid defense like Detroit than they did against the Niners.

Arizona 38, Detroit 10

Houston Texans (6-7) at St. Louis Rams (1-10)

Matt Schaub is having an incredible season. No reason to think he won't light it up against the Rams.

Houston 42, St. Louis 17

Miami Dolphins (7-6) at Tennessee Titans (6-7)

From Sports Illustrated: "Miami is 6-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less since Henne took over, and he's engineered three successful fourth-quarter comebacks." Considering Vince Young is still questionable, I think Tennessee might have a real challenge here… but right now, I can't get past how good Chris Johnson really is. I loudly protested Tennessee drafting him as a poor choice for a team that needed receivers. I could not have been more wrong. The kid is incredible.

Tennessee 24, Miami 21

Cleveland Browns (2-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-10)

Remember when Arrowhead was a tough place to play? It still would be, if the Chiefs were any good at all. Yes, the Browns are horrible. Truly horrible. But Brady Quinn has outplayed Matt Cassell for a couple weeks now. This garbage game won't mean a thing except to players whose jobs may depend on it.

Cleveland 30, Kansas City 27

Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at New York Jets (7-6)

Matt Ryan's availability is still in question. The Jets' defense is very, very good.

New York Jets 23, Atlanta 14

San Francisco 49ers (6-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)

I don't like what I'm seeing out of the Philadelphia defense, but their offense is firing on all cylinders. This might be the game where we see whether or not San Francisco is ready to step it up. Even if they lose – and I'm not usually a big fan of the idea of a "moral victory" – but even if they lose, if the Niners make a real game out of this, I'll start to reconsider my positions on Alex Smith and Mike Singletary. (I'm sure they'll sleep better at night, knowing this.)

Philadelphia 31, San Francisco 24

Oakland Raiders (4-9) at Denver Broncos (8-5)

I don't know why I assumed Tom Cable was pretty much a guy who lucked into a job while only understanding the O-Line position. I saw some good footage on "Sound F/X" on the NFL Network of Cable miked up, and I was surprised to see that he was a very good strategist, as well as someone fully aware of how bad JaMarcus Russell's understanding of the playbook really was. Unfortunately, he is still burdened with Russell – something he dislikes so much that he's starting Charlie "I'm Still Employed?" Frye. Brandon Marshall? Go for 22. It's fun to watch.

Denver 41, Oakland 12

Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at San Diego Chargers (10-3)

I don't want to minimize or make light of the death of Chris Henry, especially after the Bengals also lost the wife of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. But the Bengals will be angry after a tough game loss last week, they will be emotionally invested in this game, and the Chargers' defense looks really, really questionable at times. It's cliché to expect a team to rally after an emotional impact like this, but I've seen it happen too many times to assume it's not possible.

Cincinnati 31, San Diego 30

Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7)

Go Pack Go.

Green Bay 27, Pittsburgh 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-10) at Seattle Seahawks(5-8)

Seattle's rush defense is the best thing it has right now, and Tampa Bay's passing game the worst it has right now.

Seattle 24, Tampa Bay 13

Minnesota Vikings (11-2) at Carolina Panthers (5-8)

Why is this the Sunday night game? This is what makes people assume the media has a passionate crush on Favre. This game shouldn't be a national game, and NBC could have flexed something else into this spot.

Minnesota 34, Carolina 10

New York Giants (7-6) at Washington Redskins (4-9)

The Giants are lucky their offense looks good, because their defense doesn't look like it would put up much of a fight. I think this game will be closer than it ought to be… so much so that I've waffled on who will win multiple times.

New York Giants 24, Washington 23

Summary:
Indianapolis 20, Jacksonville 13
New Orleans 34, Dallas 20
Baltimore 24, Chicago 10
New England 20, Buffalo 14
Arizona 38, Detroit 10
Houston 42, St. Louis 17
Tennessee 24, Miami 21
Cleveland 30, Kansas City 27
New York Jets 23, Atlanta 14
Philadelphia 31, San Francisco 24
Denver 41, Oakland 12
Cincinnati 31, San Diego 30
Green Bay 27, Pittsburgh 17
Seattle 24, Tampa Bay 13
Minnesota 34, Carolina 10
New York Giants 24, Washington 23

How Wrong Was David? Week 14

2009-12-16T23:18:36Z

How Wrong Was David?
Time Crunch Edition

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 14
Reality: Cleveland 13, Pittsburgh 6
Commentary: So in the past month the defending Super Bowl champions have lost to the Kansas City Chiefs (3-10), the Oakland Raiders (4-9), and the Cleveland Browns (2-11). Once is an occurrence. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern.

Prediction: New Orleans 38, Atlanta 20
Reality: New Orleans 26, Atlanta 23
Commentary: I find it interesting that the people suggesting the Colts aren't as good as they seem are doing so because they've had to win close games against weaker teams – but in the past couple weeks when New Orleans had to eke out wins against Washington and Atlanta, I've heard nothing but comments like, "Boy, the Saints just find ways to win!"

Prediction: Baltimore 34, Detroit 10
Reality: Baltimore 48, Detroit 3
Commentary: I really have very little to say about this game. So instead, I'll focus on one of Coach Harbaugh's comments about Joe Flacco: "Joe bounced back. I thought it was gutsy." And all I'd like to say about that is, thanks for saying "gutsy." I'm getting really tired of many sportscasters saying "gutty," like it's somehow manlier than "gutsy."

Prediction: Green Bay 30, Chicago 12
Reality: Green Bay 21, Chicago 14
Commentary: If the Packers miss the playoffs somehow, then tell me why you think Aaron Rodgers is overrated. Until then, hush.

Prediction: Houston 28, Seattle 17
Reality: Houston 34, Seattle 7
Commentary: Coach Jim Mora (Seattle) said, "I'm not happy at all with the way our offensive line is playing and we are going to take an extremely hard look at that over the next two days. I can't promise you there won't be changes. If there are changes that need to be made, we'll make them, even at this late date in the season." In related news, ushers at Safeco field have offered to give them an even swap of five patron entrance turnstiles.

Prediction: Indianapolis 27, Denver 24
Reality: Indianapolis 28, Denver 16
Commentary: Peyton Manning didn't have a good game. The injury report said he had an injured glute. I thought you had to have T.O. or Randy Moss on your team in order for your quarterback to have a pain in the butt. (Thank you! I'm here all week!) Aaaanyway, the Colts now have locked up home field advantage. I'm hoping that they stumble into a victory over Jacksonville and defense carries them to another win over the Jets, just so that they'll seriously consider playing hard when I'm watching in Buffalo.

Prediction: Jacksonville 24, Miami 20
Reality: Miami 14, Jacksonville 10
Commentary: Jacksonville is infuriatingly inconsistent. I can't tell if their loss was a bad game by the Jags or a good game by the Dolphins.

Prediction: Buffalo 14, Kansas City 10
Reality: Buffalo 16, Kansas City 10
Commentary: Who did Bill Macatee and Steve Beuerlein tick off to get the job of covering this goat rodeo?

Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Minnesota 17
Reality: Minnesota 30, Cincinnati 10
Commentary: Something's wrong with Carson Palmer. Not sure what, but he doesn't look like he's playing right. On the other hand, the AP headline for this game pointed out that Peterson scored twice – and, it also pointed out, didn't fumble. That's not a good sign when that has to be in a headline.

Prediction: New England 27, Carolina 17
Reality: New England 20, Carolina 10
Commentary: So Randy Moss phoned it in. Three observations: (1) This should not come as a shock. He plays when he feels like playing. (2) Yes, it's shameful that he does this, but some reporters – including my usual favorite, Peter King – seem to think he should be seriously punished. I'm not sure what exactly he has planned, but I half-expect to hear him calling for the release of some guy named Barabbas. (3) Does anyone really think he'll just phone it in when they're in the playoffs? If so, it wouldn't be until the game was well out of hand. So everyone – in the words of even-more-dorky-back-then me at age 13, "Take a chill pill." (Also: "Take it down about a thousand, all right?")

Prediction: New York Jets 28, Tampa Bay 13
Reality: New York Jets 26, Tampa Bay 3
Commentary: I think after Freeman had some immediate success due to his novelty, defenses have figured him out. Which is not to downplay how well this Jets' defense has been playing after a few rough weeks.

Prediction: Tennessee 30, St. Louis 9
Reality: Tennessee 47, St. Louis 7
Commentary: Keith Who?

Prediction: Washington 21, Oakland 14
Reality: Washington 34, Oakland 13
Commentary: Gradkowski went out with two bad knees, and word is that Russell still won't get the start this next Sunday. That's not good, son.

Prediction: San Diego 28, Dallas 27
Reality: San Diego 20, Dallas 17
Commentary: I realized today that I'm not a believer in the Dallas "December swoon," (especially considering the tough schedule draw this year) and yet I firmly believe that the Chargers will play out like always, getting themselves Norved right out of contention before they have a chance to make the Super Bowl.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, New York Giants 20
Reality: Philadelphia 45, New York Giants 38
Commentary: I'm concerned about the defenses of both teams. It's not that I question the solid abilities of many of the offensive players, but the defensive players allowed way, way too many points in this game.

Prediction: Arizona 31, San Francisco 13
Reality: San Francisco 26, Arizona 9
Commentary: Seven turnovers? Seven??? Yeah, good luck with the playoffs, Cards.

Straight-up win/loss:
strangefootball
12-for-16 (75.00%)
YTD: 141-for-208 (67.79%)
SI's Peter King
11-for-16 (68.75%)
YTD: 140-for-208 (67.31%)

Against the spread:
strangefootball
10-for-16 (62.50%)
YTD: 117-for-208 (56.25%)
SI's Peter King
8-for-16 (50.00%)
YTD: 106-for-208 (50.96%)

Week 14 Predictions

2009-12-13T15:30:37Z

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) at Cleveland Browns (1-11)

Good news, Coach Tomlin. You don't have to "unleash hell" here. Just loosen up heck. That ought to be enough.

Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 14

New Orleans Saints (12-0) at Atlanta Falcons (6-6)

Just three weeks ago, this looked like a potentially epic matchup… but with Matt Ryan a little gimpy and Michael Turner still questionable, I have a very hard time seeing this as anything but a win for the seemingly unstoppable Saints. Unless I'm mistaken, the Saints have never won 13 games in a single season, let alone without a single loss. Time to celebrate, Nawlins. With any luck, you'll be celebrating well into late January.

New Orleans 38, Atlanta 20

Detroit Lions (2-10) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

Stafford's hurt. Detroit's defense shouldn't be able to stop Flacco and Co.

Baltimore 34, Detroit 10

Green Bay Packers (8-4) at Chicago Bears (5-7)

The Packers – who looked dangerously overrated (including by me) just a month ago – are not only fighting for a playoff spot, they're fighting well. The problems with their O-Line aren't gone, but they're much improved. And I'm not sure why the line on this game is only 2.5 – the Packers' defense should feast on Cutler.

Green Bay 30, Chicago 12

Seattle Seahawks (5-7) at Houston Texans (5-7)

This is a tough one to pick, and even more so because it's a futile effort for either team to keep playoff hopes alive. Hasselbeck's injury is lingering, and Schaub's is still very recent. The Houston defense has been less than impressive, while Seattle's has actually made some strides. So despite the fact that I think Seattle has a roster with far fewer quality players than Houston, it looks to me like this one could squeak through for Seattle. So don't ask me to explain why I'm going with my gut feeling that Seattle will find a way to lose this one.

Houston 28, Seattle 17

Denver Broncos (8-4) at Indianapolis Colts (12-0)

The Broncos started off looking so deadly, and then seemingly crashed and burned, but they're back. The player to watch in this game is NFL leader in sacks, Elvis Dumervil. He often plays lined up against running backs who simply can't contain him. Tom Moore, the Colts' offensive coordinator, knows this and has been studying him. Despite Donald Brown's injury, don't expect to see much of Mike Hart in this game, as Elvis would probably eat him alive. Joe Addai will do some blocking, Dallas Clark will get involved as well, but don't be surprised to see a number of offensive packages that include a double tight-end set with Tom Santi, or a two-halfback set with Addai and Chad Simpson. Denver's pass defense looks pretty solid, so Peyton Manning is really going to have to play at his best to keep the unbeaten streak alive.

Indianapolis 27, Denver 24

Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5)

Both teams are susceptible to the pass. Garrard passes better than Henne. Thus saith me.

Jacksonville 24, Miami 20

Buffalo Bills (4-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-9)

When you have two defenses this porous, it's tempting to make it a shootout. But when you have two offenses this bad, it's tempting to make it a 0-0 tie. I'll compromise.

Buffalo 14, Kansas City 10

Cincinnati Bengals (9-3) at Minnesota Vikings (10-2)

Good looking matchup. Minnesota is favored in this game largely due to the fact that they're Minnesota and they're playing Cincinnati. But it seems to me that the Vikings have shown a vulnerability to strong defenses and big plays. I think the Bengals can pull this one off.

Cincinnati 24, Minnesota 17

Carolina Panthers (5-7) at New England Patriots (7-5)

Brady hasn't practiced much, and that's apparently a combination of injury and fatherhood. Fortunately for him, he gets to play against Carolina. And the Pats' defensive problems have come in the passing game, not the running game where Carolina shows some fight.

New England 27, Carolina 17

New York Jets (6-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-11)

Darrelle Revis shouldn't be able to intercept Josh Freeman more than twenty or thirty times.

New York Jets 28, Tampa Bay 13

St. Louis Rams (1-11) at Tennessee Titans (5-7)

Vince Young is reportedly a wee bit gimpy. He left practice with ice on his knee. Good news for the Titans – they're against the Rams.

Tennessee 30, St. Louis 9

Washington Redskins (3-9) at Oakland Raiders (4-8)

Both teams see themselves as starting to put together the puzzle that will help them be solid next year. Considering the injuries that the Redskins have had recently, I have to wonder if Oakland might actually pull off yet another solid performance… and yet I just can't help but doubt the Raiders in general.

Washington 21, Oakland 14

San Diego Chargers (9-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-4)

Hugely important matchup for the Cowboys. The Chargers are always good in December, and we've all heard plenty about how the Boys fall apart. I think the key to this game will really be on the Chargers' defense. We already know their offense will manage to move the ball down the field. Philip Rivers may be a jerk, but he's a prolific and accurate jerk. My question is whether or not the Chargers are really capable of stopping Jason Witten.

San Diego 28, Dallas 27

Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) at New York Giants (7-5)

Dallas gave up a lot of big plays to New York last week. I'm not sure Philly will do the same. Eli Manning didn't look good against Dallas despite winning, and one week doesn't often result in a 180-degree turnaround for Eli.

Philadelphia 24, New York Giants 20

Arizona Cardinals (8-4) at San Francisco 49ers (5-7)

Regarding their loss to the Seahawks last week, head coach Mike Singletary said, "In every situation, we just found a way to screw it up." I'm sure he's drilled into them the importance of not doing that again. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean their talent matches up. With the Niners missing their top-paid cornerback Nate Clements, Fitzgerald and Boldin should have an excellent day.

Arizona 31, San Francisco 13

Summary:
Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 14
New Orleans 38, Atlanta 20
Baltimore 34, Detroit 10
Green Bay 30, Chicago 12
Houston 28, Seattle 17
Indianapolis 27, Denver 24
Jacksonville 24, Miami 20
Buffalo 14, Kansas City 10
Cincinnati 24, Minnesota 17
New England 27, Carolina 17
New York Jets 28, Tampa Bay 13
Tennessee 30, St. Louis 9
Washington 21, Oakland 14
San Diego 28, Dallas 27
Philadelphia 24, New York Giants 20
Arizona 31, San Francisco 13

Week 14 Thursday Quick Pick

2009-12-10T23:10:20Z

More later...

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) at Cleveland Browns (1-11)

Good news, Coach Tomlin. You don't have to "unleash hell" here. Just loosen up heck. That ought to be enough.

Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 14

How Wrong Was David? Week 13

2009-12-10T23:02:26Z

How Wrong Was David?
Upset Edition

Prediction: New York Jets 24, Buffalo 14
Reality: New York Jets 19, Buffalo 13
Commentary: It's not a good sign when NFL Network comes back from a commercial when the game is done and they start up their post-game show with a segment titled "Highlights" – and the first caption is "Missed Opportunities". Braylon Edwards took one heck of a shot to the face in this game and kept going. Of course, the shot was a pass thrown by his quarterback that he failed to catch despite contacting it with both hands – AND, I REPEAT, HIS FACE. He's lucky the Jets won, or that would have been disastrous, but either way it should go on the days-long highlight reel of his drops. Oh, sorry, his "missed opportunities."

Prediction: Chicago 24, St. Louis 10
Reality: Chicago 17, St. Louis 9
Commentary: Hey, uh… if anyone remembers all those reasons I gave for why the Rams weren't going to totally stink this year… well, first of all, congratulations on your memory. That's impressive. But second of all, pretend I never said any of that.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 17, Carolina 13
Reality: Carolina 16, Tampa Bay 6
Commentary: Freeman appears to be learning from the Cutler School of Throwing Picks in the Red Zone. Looks like he's going to graduate Magna Cum Laude. That being said, I noticed something in the game description from the AP: "His biggest error came on fourth-and-goal from the 2 with the Bucs trailing 13-6 early in the fourth quarter. Chris Harris picked him off in the end zone." …Um, excuse me? You're down by seven points. You have only two yards to go. Your quarterback has been picked off several times already. Run the stupid ball!!! Remember that old adage about passing, from Duffy Daugherty? "Three things can happen when you put a ball in the air – and two of them are bad." If you run the ball, you score or you pin them deep. If you pass the ball… well, you see what happens. But here's the thing: I don't blame Freeman for that. He doesn't call his own plays. Greg Olson, the offensive coordinator does. Of course, he's never been an offensive coordinator until he replaced Jeff Jagodzinski right before the season. He was a quarterbacks coach. Of course he wants to pass. Then again, it was Raheem Morris who fired Jagodzinski and promoted Olson. And it was the Glazers who fired Jon Gruden and promoted Raheem Morris twice within a month to run a National Football League team! …Look, I'm sorry. I don't know why I get so worked up about this, except that I honestly can't understand why people who know football, like the Glazers, can make such stupid decisions with such huge ramifications. Maybe Morris and his staff and players will prove me wrong within the next couple years, but I will be stunned if Morris has a record even close to .500 by the time they can him.

Prediction: Houston 28, Jacksonville 20
Reality: Jacksonville 23, Houston 18
Commentary: I couldn't figure out why Kris Brown, the Texans' kicker, was involved in throwing an interception on a first-and-goal. Then I learned that it was Chris Brown, the Texans' running back, and the whole screw-up was the coach's brilliant idea. Kubiak? You may have just cost yourself your job next year. You needed this win, badly.

Prediction: Denver 31, Kansas City 13
Reality: Denver 44, Kansas City 13
Commentary: Yeah, but keep in mind that it was Kansas City.

Prediction: Indianapolis 28, Tennessee 27
Reality: Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 17
Commentary: I have to wonder if Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie would be getting as much press if everyone weren't so busy accounting for Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne.

Prediction: Philadelphia 27, Atlanta 17
Reality: Philadelphia 34, Atlanta 7
Commentary: Tony Gonzalez, Falcons tight end, said, "It's not over yet. We've still got four games left." You have to wonder what the tone of voice was. The words are confident and determined, but repeat it to yourself as if you've just realized how many more times you were going to get hit and tackled before you could go home in January. Sure, Atlanta's technically still in the playoff hunt, but at this point it would take a lot of luck.

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Washington 12
Reality: New Orleans 33, Washington 30 (OT)
Commentary: Possibly the best play of the season? Robert Meachem stealing the ball from the guy who intercepted Drew Brees's pass, and running it back for the touchdown. Possibly the worst play of the season? Shaun Suisham missing a chip shot field goal. All in one game. And where the heck did that Skins offense come from?

Prediction: Pittsburgh 34, Oakland 13
Reality: Oakland 27, Pittsburgh 24
Commentary: And where the heck did that Steelers defense go? It can't all be Polamalu's injury absence, can it? Something of note: Gradkowski threw more touchdowns in the fourth quarter (three) than JaMarcus Russell had thrown all season (two).

Prediction: Cincinnati 41, Detroit 10
Reality: Cincinnati 23, Detroit 13
Commentary: I saw a little extra footage of this game, and I was surprised at how physical the Lions' line play was. If they can get just a few more pieces of the puzzle together, they might go 6-10 or even 7-9 next year.

Prediction: New England 28, Miami 24
Reality: Miami 22, New England 21
Commentary: Either Vontae Davis or his defensive backs coach is smart. They knew that Brady likes to pass to Moss's back shoulder, and that adjusted Davis's approach when he saw the play forming. That led to a pick in the end zone. Very nicely done.

Prediction: San Diego 45, Cleveland 7
Reality: San Diego 30, Cleveland 23
Commentary: All three of Brady Quinn's touchdown passes came from within the red zone (11 yards, 8 yards, and 8 yards). That's why I'm not convinced that San Diego is really a force to be reckoned with. Yes, they look pretty good, but when you only beat Cleveland by a touchdown and you can't defend the short field, you're doing something wrong.

Prediction: Dallas 23, New York Giants 16
Reality: New York Giants 31, Dallas 24
Commentary: Note to teams playing Dallas this month: go for big plays. Apparently they don't know how to stop them. Why weren't their fastest guys chasing Brandon Jacobs? I mean, it looked like they weren't even trying!

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Seattle 13
Reality: Seattle 20, San Francisco 17
Commentary: You remember all the grief I gave Braylon Edwards about the ball bouncing off his face mask? Yeah. Same goes for you, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree! GEEZ, people.

Prediction: Minnesota 31, Arizona 27
Reality: Arizona 30, Minnesota 17
Commentary: E.J. Henderson broke his leg late in the game. That is definitely bad news for the Vikings. The good news for the Cardinals is that they managed to hold Adrian Peterson to only 19 yards on 13 carries. That's pretty amazing defense.

Prediction: Green Bay 21, Baltimore 17
Reality: Green Bay 27, Baltimore 14
Commentary: Don't look now, but Green Bay is 8-4. Those pass interference penalties are troublesome, but at least they were being called against both teams.

Straight-up win/loss:
strangefootball
9-for-16 (56.25%)
YTD: 129-for-192 (67.19%)
SI's Peter King
10-for-16 (62.50%)
YTD: 129-for-192 (67.19%)

Against the spread:
strangefootball
6-for-16 (37.50%)
YTD: 107-for-192 (55.73%)
SI's Peter King
6-for-16 (37.50%)
YTD: 98-for-192 (51.04%)

Week 13 Predictions

2009-12-03T20:52:18Z

I've tried to sound more confident in my picks, like most professional sportswriters, but instead of saying "This team will win," I've confidently said, "This is a tough pick."

Which isn't exactly what I was going for. But the truth is, I change my mind on who's going to win a number of times for a lot of games each week. If you observed the conversations I had with my wife every week, you'd basically see me waffle like a Belgian.

New York Jets (5-6) "at" Buffalo Bills (4-7) at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Here is why I am predicting the Jets to win: Jairus Byrd is injured; if Darrelle Revis was able to cover Andre Johnson and Randy Moss, he'll be able to cover T.O.; and Rex Ryan grew up in Toronto. Yeah, that last one's not a great reason, but don't I sound confident?

New York Jets 24, Buffalo 14

St. Louis Rams (1-10) at Chicago Bears (4-7)

Neither team can stop the run. Both teams are getting injury after injury. I can't believe I'm about to say this, but I think the Bears' hopes are on Cutler, who should be able to hold his own against a defense as porous as St. Louis has been.

Chicago 24, St. Louis 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-10) at Carolina Panthers (4-7)

Raheem Morris is making some baffling strategic choices, but the Panthers' offense looks miserably out-of-sync. It's still uncertain if Jake Delhomme will play, but it looks like they'll bring in Matt Moore. I'm not convinced that will straighten things out right away. I'm going with Tampa Bay in an upset.

Tampa Bay 17, Carolina 13

Houston Texans (5-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)

Jacksonville is so radically inconsistent that I'm just not convinced they can hold it together on any given Sunday. Houston plays tough against good teams but has trouble playing a full four quarters. I'm thinking that if Houston plays a good enough three quarters, Jacksonville isn't steady enough to come from behind to win it.

Houston 28, Jacksonville 20

Denver Broncos (7-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-8)

I've heard a number of people saying they think the Chiefs have a real chance at this one. I have no idea where these people are getting that idea. I don't care how hard it is to play in Arrowhead, the Chiefs are not a good team right now.

Denver 31, Kansas City 13

Tennessee Titans (5-6) at Indianapolis Colts (11-0)

The Titans make me nervous. Vince Young looks like a completely different quarterback than the one of a couple years ago. Chris Johnson is, in my opinion, the most exciting running back in the league right now. But I think there is a very real possibility that the Colts' defense under Larry Coyer is the best it's been in the history of my fandom, and the offense is firing on all cylinders as well. This could be a rough game, but I think the Colts can do it.

Indianapolis 28, Tennessee 27

Philadelphia Eagles (7-4) at Atlanta Falcons (6-5)

I'm afraid this might be the end of the line for the Falcons' playoff hopes. With Ryan and Turner both hurt, the Eagles ought to be able to push a full sixty minutes and stay on top.

Philadelphia 27, Atlanta 17

New Orleans Saints (11-0) at Washington Redskins (3-8)

Washington has a tough defense, but once again their offense will not be able to get anything going.

New Orleans 31, Washington 12

Oakland Raiders (3-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

Tomlin's "attack mode" is going to look particularly brutal against the Raiders. As long as he doesn't call up too many pass plays towards Asomugha.

Pittsburgh 34, Oakland 13

Detroit Lions (2-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-3)

Julian Peterson told the Lions' official website, "Our emphasis is bend but don't break. We don't care how many yards a team gets. If we can keep the score within a reasonable amount, or even better no points at all, it gives the offense a much better chance to make those last-minute drives." One minor problem, Mr. Peterson – you're not only giving up over 450 yards a game for the last few games, but over 30 points per game all season.

Cincinnati 41, Detroit 10

New England Patriots (7-4) at Miami Dolphins (5-6)

Miami always plays the Pats tough, but New England is really ticked off.

New England 28, Miami 24

San Diego Chargers (8-3) at Cleveland Browns (1-10)

Massacre in three… two… one…

San Diego 45, Cleveland 7

Dallas Cowboys (8-3) at New York Giants (6-5)

I know. I know. Romo stinks in December. I've heard it before. But right now, the Giants stink out loud. And Romo didn't have Miles Austin playing like a madman the last couple Decembers.

Dallas 23, New York Giants 16

San Francisco 49ers (5-6) at Seattle Seahawks (4-7)

The Seahawks pass game is hurting right now (literally – Hasselbeck is still struggling with the rib injury he took the last time they played the Niners) and their ground game won't get any traction against the fifth-best run defense in the league. San Francisco has started getting their passing game together, and Seattle is not defending the pass well either. Sorry, Hawks… once again, it's not your year.

San Francisco 28, Seattle 13

Minnesota Vikings (10-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-4)

Should be an exciting game with a lot of passing, and with a lot of defensive opportunities being seized. Possibly the best game of the week if both teams show up.

Minnesota 31, Arizona 27

Baltimore Ravens (6-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-4)

As disappointed as I have been in the Green Bay offensive line, and as much as I know Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are salivating at the idea of getting to Aaron Rodgers, I think the Pack has just enough going for it that they can take this one and stay in the playoff hunt.

Green Bay 21, Baltimore 17

Summary:
New York Jets 24, Buffalo 14
Chicago 24, St. Louis 10
Tampa Bay 17, Carolina 13
Houston 28, Jacksonville 20
Denver 31, Kansas City 13
Indianapolis 28, Tennessee 27
Philadelphia 27, Atlanta 17
New Orleans 31, Washington 12
Pittsburgh 34, Oakland 13
Cincinnati 41, Detroit 10
New England 28, Miami 24
San Diego 45, Cleveland 7
Dallas 23, New York Giants 16
San Francisco 28, Seattle 13
Minnesota 31, Arizona 27
Green Bay 21, Baltimore 17

How Wrong Was David? Week 12

2009-12-03T17:45:06Z

How Wrong Was David?
Playoff Scenarios Begin Edition

Prediction: Green Bay 45, Detroit 28
Reality: Green Bay 34, Detroit 12
Commentary: Charles Woodson had one heck of a day, didn't he? Two picks (including a return for a touchdown), one sack, one forced fumble, and a $2 million donation to a new children's hospital, all in front of fans who remember him from college at Michigan. Nicely done, sir. Of interest to me during the game was Troy Aikman, the former quarterback and now lackluster color commentator, pointing out that when you consider Aaron Rodgers's sack rate, you have to keep in mind that his interception rate is so low because of how long he hangs on to the ball. It honestly sounded like he was suggesting that getting sacked that much was a good thing. Of course, coming from a quarterback who took so many hits he had to retire early and doesn't remember playing in – and winning – Super Bowl XXVII due to concussion issues, I'm sure he does think getting hit is a good thing.

Prediction: Dallas 20, Oakland 14
Reality: Dallas 24, Oakland 7
Commentary: For those of you getting on board the Dallas bandwagon, bear in mind that they converted only one third of their fourth downs and amassed penalties at incredibly inconvenient times. I'm not one of those who believes that Romo will automatically fall apart in December, but don't get too heady on this win. Remember – it was Oakland.

Prediction:New York Giants 17, Denver 13
Reality: Denver 26, New York Giants 6
Commentary: The New York running game pretty much doesn't exist anymore. I know they're still technically in the hunt for a playoff spot, but it seems to me that they're pretty much done.

Prediction:Miami 28, Buffalo 17
Reality: Buffalo 31, Miami 14
Commentary: I may have to take back what I said about Ryan Fitzpatrick being boring. He ran for a 31-yard touchdown, and he's found an open T.O. twice in two weeks for big touchdown plays. I'm interested to see what's next for the Bills..

Prediction:Seattle 20, St. Louis 10
Reality: Seattle 27, St. Louis 17
Commentary: If there are any happy Seahawks fans out there, remember this: if Justin Forsett is your best player in any given game, you are not a good team.

Prediction:Philadelphia 24, Washington 10
Reality: Philadelphia 27, Washington 24
Commentary: No Portis, no Haynesworth, no Hall, no Cooley, and the Skins still nearly beat the Eagles. I'm not saying Washington is a good team, but they're better than I thought they were. They could spoil a few seasons.

Prediction:Atlanta 30, Tampa Bay 13
Reality: Atlanta 20, Tampa Bay 17
Commentary: Jason Elam might be done in Atlanta… and kickers have a hard time getting jobs back after being cut for poor performance. Atlanta could be in a tough spot with a number of injury concerns that could be serious.

Prediction:Tennessee 20, Arizona 17
Reality: Tennessee 20, Arizona 17
Commentary: In all my years of predicting, this is only the second game that I got exactly right. What I didn't predict was how they'd get this. Vince Young rushed four times for eight yards – that's it. The rest of it he did through the air. 387 yards, to be exact, including the final 99-yard drive culminating in an amazing catch by rookie Kenny Britt. An amazing performance to keep the Titans' five-game win streak alive.

Prediction:Indianapolis 31, Houston 30
Reality: Indianapolis 35, Houston 27
Commentary: I started watching a tape of this game a little after four in the morning on Monday, having just gotten back from an out-of-town trip for Thanksgiving. I nearly shut it off after the first quarter with the Colts down 14-0. Instead, I had to fight back hollers and shouts that would have awakened my wife as the Colts came back to win. This was the fifth straight game in which they were behind at the start of the fourth quarter but won. Not the way I like to win, but I'll take it. To score 21 points in under six minutes is pretty impressive.

Prediction:Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 9
Reality: Cincinnati 16, Cleveland 7
Commentary: I really thought Brady Quinn would be a better quarterback in this league, even if he didn't have many good receivers (as is the case currently). At least he can catch the ball – he scored a touchdown on a pass from Josh Cribbs, who really ought to be given a shot on a real team.

Prediction:Minnesota 38, Chicago 10
Reality: Minnesota 36, Chicago 10
Commentary: Very close to getting this one completely right, too. Not much to say, really. Just another day at the office for Favre and Allen.

Prediction:Carolina 20, New York Jets 16
Reality: New York Jets 17, Carolina 6
Commentary: Well, I said I was taking the team with the quarterback who threw unfortunate interceptions instead of the one who threw stupid interceptions. Apparently someone pointed out to Sanchez that he didn't need to throw that much. And Panthers fans all held their breath when it was revealed that Delhomme had an injured hand… all hoping this meant John Fox's interminable loyalty might finally give way to reality.

Prediction:San Diego 30, Kansas City 13
Reality: San Diego 43, Kansas City 14
Commentary: Did Matt Cassel hand the ball to Paul Oliver? What the heck?

Prediction:Jacksonville 17, San Francisco 14
Reality: San Francisco 20, Jacksonville 3
Commentary: Jacksonville has no consistency. I can't figure out what to do with these guys.

Prediction:Baltimore 14, Pittsburgh 10
Reality: Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 17
Commentary: Dennis Dixon is very exciting to watch, although not always for good reasons. And if you're not talking about Ray Rice, you're not paying enough attention.

Prediction:New Orleans 38, New England 35 (OT)
Reality: New Orleans 38, New England 17
Commentary: I actually had to go back to make sure I really had picked the Saints to win. I had been very much on the fence. But after watching that game, I get the same feeling I got in 2005, leading up to Super Bowl XL, when it looked like the Colts were unstoppable. Right now, I don't think there's a team in the league playing as well as the Saints, although the Vikings are very close. Brees looks like an MVP. Over 75% pass completion ratio, over 350 yards, 5 touchdowns, no interceptions, a perfect QB rating, 3 TD passes in a single quarter against a Belichick team (unprecedented), 5 TD passes against a Belichick team (I believe unprecedented – I think Peyton got 4 twice and Eli got 4 once)… I've been watching Peyton for years now and I'm not completely sure if he ever had a performance look as good as what Drew Brees did on Monday night. But I keep wondering about that whole 2005 Colts thing… when they got knocked out of the playoffs in their first game.

Straight-up win/loss:
strangefootball
12-for-16 (75%.00)
YTD: 120-for-176 (68.18%)
SI's Peter King
10-for-16 (62.50%)
YTD: 119-for-176 (67.61%)

Against the spread:
strangefootball
8-for-16 (50.00%)
YTD: 101-for-176 (57.39%)
SI's Peter King
4-for-16 (25.00%)
YTD: 92-for-176 (52.27%)

Week 12 Predictions

2009-11-25T17:21:09Z

Green Bay Packers (6-4) at Detroit Lions (2-8)

If Brady Quinn could score four touchdowns against Detroit, Aaron Rodgers ought to get at least twelve. Except that he'll probably get sacked a bunch.

Green Bay 45, Detroit 28

Oakland Raiders (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

The Cowboys are favored by nearly two touchdowns. Neither team has been consistent enough for me to have any idea if this is feasible. The Cowboys' offense didn't look good the past two games, but on the other hand they're against the Raiders… heck with it, I'm just picking numbers.

Dallas 20, Oakland 14

New York Giants (6-4) at Denver Broncos (6-4)

Back in Week 5, this looked like a truly awesome matchup. Now? Not so much.

New York Giants 17, Denver 13

Miami Dolphins (5-5) at Buffalo Bills (3-7)

Ricky Williams is alive and well. Buffalo, in general, is at least alive.

Miami 28, Buffalo 17

Seattle Seahawks (3-7) at St. Louis Rams (1-9)

I know the Seahawks are struggling, and I know Steven Jackson is doing quite well, but I still have a hard time understanding how the Hawks are only favored by 2.5 when Marc Bulger is out.

Seattle 20, St. Louis 10

Washington Redskins (3-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-4)

This game is airing in my area. Usually, if I can't watch a game live, I will DVR it and watch it later (while zipping through commercials). I'm not even bothering to DVR this one. Nothing about the Skins offense excites any interest.

Philadelphia 24, Washington 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-9) at Atlanta Falcons (5-5)

Shake it off, Ryan. Shake it off. Just relax and make your throws, and you'll be fine.

Atlanta 30, Tampa Bay 13

Arizona Cardinals (7-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-6)

Despite the records, this is a tough one for me to pick. The Titans have been showing a lot more on offense with Vince Young than I expected, and the Cardinals have been surprisingly weak at times. I still believe that the Titans' pass defense is suspect, and the Cards do have Larry Fitzgerald, but this just feels like a game that Arizona will let slip.

Tennessee 20, Arizona 17

Indianapolis Colts (10-0) at Houston Texans (5-5)

The Texans are angry, and hungry, and… I think that's all the –gry words, right? This is a game that the Colts could very easily lose. I'm going with my hometown favorite, but I am absolutely not confident of a win.

Indianapolis 31, Houston 30

Cleveland Browns (1-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)

This time, Andre Caldwell will hold on to the ball… if he knows what's good for him.

Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 9

Chicago Bears (4-6) at Minnesota Vikings (9-1)

Once again, Brett Favre will have the opportunity to rack up empty stats on a defense that's struggling. On the plus side, Jared Allen might knock that pouty look right off of Jay Cutler's face. (Note to Jay: I really used to like you. Not anymore.)

Minnesota 38, Chicago 10

Carolina Panthers (4-6) at New York Jets (4-6)

Geez, how do you pick a game like this? Two teams that should be doing better than they are… I'm going to go with the team with the quarterback that throws unfortunate interceptions over the team with the quarterback that throws stupid interceptions.

Carolina 20, New York Jets 16

Kansas City Chiefs (3-7) at San Diego Chargers (7-3)

Don't get cocky, Kansas City.

San Diego 30, Kansas City 13

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) at San Francisco 49ers (4-6)

I think Garrard can do it again. The key word is "think."

Jacksonville 17, San Francisco 14

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Baltimore Ravens (5-5)

Wow. Two more teams fighting for their lives after tough losses. They say Big Ben should be ready to play, but you know Ed Reed and Ray Lewis will be gunning for him. Why can't they give me more games that are easy to pick?

Baltimore 14, Pittsburgh 10

New England Patriots (7-3) at New Orleans Saints (10-0)

I can't wait for this game! This looks like the most exciting game since the Patriots played the Colts… which was admittedly just a couple weeks ago. I expect I will be tired and possibly trying to study while watching this game, but just thinking about this game gets me all revved up for some great football. Now if only my prediction could come true…

New Orleans 38, New England 35 (OT)

Summary:
Green Bay 45, Detroit 28
Dallas 20, Oakland 14
New York Giants 17, Denver 13
Miami 28, Buffalo 17
Seattle 20, St. Louis 10
Philadelphia 24, Washington 10
Atlanta 30, Tampa Bay 13
Tennessee 20, Arizona 17
Indianapolis 31, Houston 30
Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 9
Minnesota 38, Chicago 10
Carolina 20, New York Jets 16
San Diego 30, Kansas City 13
Jacksonville 17, San Francisco 14
Baltimore 14, Pittsburgh 10
New Orleans 38, New England 35 (OT)

How Wrong Was David? Week 11

2009-11-24T17:16:44Z

How Wrong Was David?
Seriously Craving Turkey Edition

Well, a lot of my predicted winners won, even if my scores were way, way off…

Prediction: Carolina 23, Miami 17
Reality: Miami 24, Carolina 17
Commentary: Panthers DT Damione Lewis said, "We just didn't tackle well." That seems to be a hallmark of defenses working for coordinator Ron Meeks, who previously worked with the Colts. It's not that I think Meeks teaches his players to try to tackle by hitting with the back side of their shoulder instead of wrapping up. It's that I think he fails to recognize and correct it.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Kansas City 10
Reality: Kansas City 27, Pittsburgh 24 (OT)
Commentary: Mr. Irrelevant defeated the reigning world champions. That's hilarious. The stats on this game are surprising: Pittsburgh was better than Kansas City in most categories, such as first downs (27 to 13), total plays (78 to 55), total yardage (515 to 282), completion percentage (75% to 50%), yards per pass (9.1 to 7.1), yards per rush (3.7 to 3.4), Red Zone Efficiency (60% to 33%), and time of possession (44:07 to 22:25). Normally, that would indicate a blowout. But the last couple stats suggest a reason the Steelers were in trouble – they also led in penalties (8 for 85 yards compared to 4 for 28 yards) and turnovers (3 to 1). The Steelers got really lucky that they weren't the only ones who lost to a vastly inferior team this Sunday.

Prediction: Indianapolis 28, Baltimore 18
Reality: Indianapolis 17, Baltimore 15
Commentary: I've seen the replay a couple dozen times, and I still can't tell with absolute certainty if Ed Reed's fumble on the punt return was a pure accident (knocked out of his grasp) or a bonehead move (attempting to pass backwards and losing the ball). I'd hate to think Ed Reed would make a bonehead move, but I'd also hate to think he'd fail to protect the ball.

Prediction: Green Bay 14, San Francisco 10
Reality: Green Bay 30, San Francisco 24
Commentary: I thought this would be much lower-scoring, since both teams have decent defenses. I understand Green Bay giving up 24 points if Al Harris and Aaron Kampman both got hurt, but as far as the Packers' 30 points, is that due to some errors by the Niners? Or was Rodgers just that good?

Prediction: Jacksonville 28, Buffalo 6
Reality: Jacksonville 18, Buffalo 15
Commentary: Yes, T.O. had 197 yards on the day. But the rest of the Bills, combined, had 113. That's not a winning formula.

Prediction: New York Giants 20, Atlanta Falcons 14
Reality: New York Giants 34, Atlanta Falcons 31 (OT)
Commentary: If I were a Giants fan, I would be very concerned about that defense. I'd also be worried about having a short week, even if the opponent is the currently-struggling Broncos.

Prediction: New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 21
Reality: New Orleans 38, Tampa Bay 7
Commentary: The last time an NFC team started 10-0, they won the Super Bowl. Of course, that was 18 years ago when the Redskins were pretty good. Is it too early to be considering a Saints-Vikings NFC Championship? Because right now, they're the only two teams that look like they belong there.

Prediction: Detroit 7, Cleveland 0
Reality: Detroit 38, Cleveland 37
Commentary: Um… wow. Way, way more points than I expected. By now, you've probably all heard the story of the way this game ended, which is a pretty amazing finale to a game between two of the worst teams in the league. I'm incredibly impressed with Matt Stafford's guts and drive, but I'm still skeptical of some of his decision-making. Earlier in the game he had thrown a pick in the end zone because he passed to Calvin Johnson who was triple-covered. I have to wonder if his decisions would be better if he was on a better team.

Prediction: Dallas 21, Washington 13
Reality: Dallas 7, Washington 6
Commentary: Tony Romo, football's Mr. November. Unfortunately for him, he's still going to have a number of games left for December.

Prediction: Minnesota 27, Seattle 9
Reality: Minnesota 35, Seattle 9
Commentary: The Vikings look unstoppable, but I keep thinking about what teams they've played. Their wins have been over Detroit (twice), Cleveland, St. Louis, Seattle, San Francisco, Baltimore, and Green Bay (twice), for a total win-loss opponent record of 30-60. If you left out Green Bay it would be 18-52. I'm not saying Minnesota isn't good, because they really do look like one of the two best teams in the NFL. I'm just saying I should be careful of the potential that this is an illusion.

Prediction: Arizona 31, St. Louis 10
Reality: Arizona 21, St. Louis 13
Commentary: Bulger's hurt. That's what the Rams need. Sheesh.

Prediction: New England 42, New York Jets 20
Reality: New England 31, New York Jets 14
Commentary: The last pick that Sanchez threw was flat-out idiotic. He gets rattled way too easily.

Prediction: San Diego 34, Denver 17
Reality: San Diego 32, Denver 3
Commentary: I understand why McDaniels pulled Simms, although I think by doing so he has effectively ended any chance Simms ever has of succeeding in Denver. I even understand him putting in Orton. But why was Orton still playing at the end of the game when there was no chance he could possibly get a comeback win? If he's recovering from injury, put Simms back in to finish up. Tip the king, McDaniels. No shame in that.

Prediction: Cincinnati 37, Oakland 9
Reality: Oakland 20, Cincinnati 17
Commentary: I hate when players fumble (the only exception being when it's a Colts opponent and the Colts recover). More than that, I hate when players fumble on returns. Of all the times that you need your top priority to be hanging onto the ball, that's it. And mostly, I hate when players fumble on returns late in the fourth quarter unless they have a 21-point lead. Andre Caldwell, I am disappointed in you.

Prediction: Philadelphia 28, Chicago 21
Reality: Philadelphia 24, Chicago 20
Commentary: Less than 56% passing and another game-ending pick? Wow, Cutler. From being the potential savior of Chicago to being the goat. (And be careful – goats in Chicago tend to lead to cursed teams.)

Prediction: Houston 28, Tennessee 27
Reality: Tennessee 20, Houston 17
Commentary: Kris Brown will have nightmares for weeks. Twice in fifteen days, he has gone wide left (the shankopotamus) on a kick that would have taken the Texans into overtime against a division opponent. I don't envy him.

Straight-up win/loss:
strangefootball
12-for-16 (75.00%)
YTD: 108-for-160 (67.50%)
SI's Peter King
13-for-16 (81.25%)
YTD: 109-for-160 (68.13%)

Against the spread:
strangefootball
10-for-16 (62.50%)
YTD: 93-for-160 (58.13%)
SI's Peter King
8-for-16 (50.00%)
YTD: 88-for-160 (55.00%)

Week 11 Predictions

2009-11-22T06:49:13Z

Really, most of this week will be the rich getting richer.

Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-5)

This time, Carolina will do the intercepting. Miami may stuff the ground game a little, but they can't prevent the pass.

Carolina 23, Miami 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-7)

The Chiefs haven't won back-to-back games in over two years. The streak lives on.

Pittsburgh 28, Kansas City 10

Indianapolis Colts (9-0) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

If you haven't read The Blind Side, you should. Great book. It starts with Joe Theissman and Lawrence Taylor, and it ends with Michael Oher and Dwight Freeney, who will face one another for the first time. Except that currently, Oher is handling the other side of the line, so they might not actually face one another at all. But don't be shocked if Sandra Bullock is at the game, since the movie just came out. (Note: I'm not sure seeing Sandra Bullock at a football game would honestly be enough to actually shock you. If so, perhaps football isn't really a good thing for you to be watching. Stick with an aquarium or drying paint or something.)

Indianapolis 28, Baltimore 18

San Francisco 49ers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-4)

The Niners' pass defense is pretty darn good. The Packers have the fourth-ranked overall defense in the league. Alex Smith was the number one overall pick in the 2005 draft; Rodgers "plummeted" to twenty-fourth even though it was thought that he might go first. Packers coach Mike McCarthy helped draft Alex Smith (over Aaron Rodgers) as he was the offensive coordinator for the Niners, but that year San Francisco had the worst offense in terms of yardage and points scored… and McCarthy suddenly became the head coach of the Packers (a move I loudly protested, although I have changed my mind since then). Now these two will face one another in a contest that might have more points scored on defense than offense. It's a crazy game.

Green Bay 14, San Francisco 10

Buffalo Bills (3-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)

I'm not thrilled that interim coach Perry Fewell (does anybody know how that's pronounced? Is it Fee-well? Fuel? Fu-elle?) named Ryan Fitzpatrick the starting quarterback over Trent Edwards, for purely selfish reasons. I've seen Fitzpatrick play live, when he was subbing for an injured Carson Palmer last year and the Bengals came to Indy. This year, I'm going to see the Colts play in Buffalo, and Fitzpatrick is just boring.

Jacksonville 28, Buffalo 6

Atlanta Falcons (5-4) at New York Giants (5-4)

Two teams that started out looking great, but have recently looked… well… not great. The Giants will be without Antonio Pierce. The Falcons may be without Michael Turner. I could easily be without interest… which is disappointing, because both Eli Manning and Matt Ryan are good QBs who I would like to see succeed.

New York Giants 20, Atlanta 14

New Orleans Saints (9-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)

OK, I've already admitted that Josh Freeman might be better than I expected. And I know that the Saints are dealing with a number of defensive injuries. But I'm not about to cast the Bucs as a spoiler against a team with Drew Brees.

New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 21

Cleveland Browns (1-8) at Detroit Lions (1-8)

If Detroit loses, they will be the first team ever to lose 32 out of 34 games. If Cleveland loses, no one will care (assuming they even notice).

Detroit 7, Cleveland 0

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Dallas Cowboys (6-3)

As long as somebody loses, I'm content.

Dallas 21, Washington 13

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1)

Mora talks too much. Okay, Coach, I know that T.J. Houshmandzadeh was talking out of his bahookey when he said "We're not losing another game." Because of course you are. But when asked about it, just say that you like it and that it's the mindset you want your team to have. Don't qualify it by saying, "I'd rather hear that then, 'Oh God, what are we going to do? How are we going to win?' You can call it false enthusiasm, false confidence, but it's certainly the mindset you want your team to have." Yes, Coach, we can call it false enthusiasm and false confidence, but you shouldn't say it. You shouldn't suggest that it's a pipe dream. I know it's a minor point, but you do a lot of this, Mora, and your team has already pointed out a few times that they notice it and think you lack confidence in them.

Minnesota 27, Seattle 9

Arizona Cardinals (6-3) at St. Louis Rams (1-8)

Kurt Warner will watch the Rams' offense and thank God that he's not being protected by that sorry O-Line.

Arizona 31, St. Louis 10

New York Jets (4-5) at New England Patriots (6-3)

Hey, Coach Mora? Listen to Coach Ryan: "At the end of the day, I always say somebody is going to have egg on their face. So far, it looks like me. But I'm betting on me. I'm betting on our football team. Trust me, I'm going to work to the best of my ability to find answers. Whatever it is, I believe we'll find them. I know our task is hard, but it's not impossible." I would follow this man way before I would follow you, Mora.

New England 42, New York Jets 20

San Diego Chargers (6-3) at Denver Broncos (6-3)

I'm not positive, but I think LaDainian Tomlinson might have a really good game.

San Diego 34, Denver 17

Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-7)

The Raiders have 9.8 points per game. And that's not even the lowest number – it's second-lowest. If you match up the Bengals players against the Raiders players one-by-one, the final score of "Who Has The Better Player" is 51-2 in favor of the Bengals, with the only two Raiders scoring points being tight end Zach Miller and cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha.

Cincinnati 37, Oakland 9

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Chicago Bears (4-5)

Cutler struggles in prime time. Why is that? McNabb threw for 450 yards in his last game, and that was against a good pass defense. The Bears' defense, currently, is not that.

Philadelphia 28, Chicago 21

Tennessee Titans (3-6) at Houston Texans (5-4)

Peter King suggests this is the most interesting game of the week, and I'm inclined to agree. The Titans seem to be coming into their own with the incredible Chris Johnson, and the Texans are rolling forward with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. Schaub has the third-most passing yards in the league, and the Titans' weak secondary is unlikely to cash in on his unfortunate tendency to pass interceptions.

Houston 28, Tennessee 27

Summary:
Carolina 23, Miami 17
Pittsburgh 28, Kansas City 10
Indianapolis 28, Baltimore 18
Green Bay 14, San Francisco 10
Jacksonville 28, Buffalo 6
New York Giants 20, Atlanta 14
New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 21
Detroit 7, Cleveland 0
Dallas 21, Washington 13
Minnesota 27, Seattle 9
Arizona 31, St. Louis 10
New England 42, New York Jets 20
San Diego 34, Denver 17
Cincinnati 37, Oakland 9
Philadelphia 28, Chicago 21
Houston 28, Tennessee 27

How Wrong Was David? Week 10

2009-11-21T22:42:36Z

I just realized that I had never posted this! Oops.

How Wrong Was David?
Happy To Be Wrong Edition

Prediction: San Francisco 20, Chicago 13
Reality: San Francisco 10, Chicago 6
Commentary: Just an ugly, ugly game. Especially for Jay Cutler, whose fifth interception as time ran out was not so much a bad throw as it was a horrible decision. There was a man open on the other side of the field, and there was time left on the clock to throw it away.

Prediction: Minnesota 35, Detroit 14
Reality: Minnesota 27, Detroit 10
Commentary: Detroit must hate it when they travel. They've lost their last 17 road games. On a different note, I have to say this: Adrian Peterson is as fantastic as everyone says, but he would be legendary if he would just hang on to the dang ball!

Prediction: Denver 13, Washington 10
Reality: Washington 27, Denver 17
Commentary: So let me get this straight. It's fourth-and-20 at the 35. The Redskins should obviously punt (that's like a 52-yard field goal attempt), and so they line up for the punt with Hunter Smith in the backfield to kick it away. But they split out tight end Todd Yoder as a receiver in an unusual formation, which is basically equivalent to Redskins coach Jim Zorn walking over to Broncos coach Josh McDaniels and saying, "Hey, I just want to let you know that this is probably a fake. Like, almost definitely. One-in-a-million chance that it's not a fake. I've told them to fake, and I don't know what would possibly change that, unless Yoder pulls a hammy and drops to the turf on his first step. Okay? Pinky swear." But the Skins only have 10 men on the field, so they call a time out. At that point, it was obvious that they needed to just punt the thing, because even if somehow the defense had been unprepared, somebody on the Denver sideline should have noticed what was going on. Right? …Apparently not, because when the time out ended, the Skins lined up in the exact same formation. And this is basically equivalent to Zorn going back to McDaniels and saying, "Hey, I really meant it. May God strike me dead if I'm lying. But it looked like you might have been unprepared, so I figured I'd give you a second chance to prep for this play." So of course, the ball is snapped, Todd Yoder went in motion and ran a pattern to the left, and Hunter Smith – allow me to interrupt myself to point out that it's well-known in the league that Smith used to be a quarterback and has even thrown a touchdown for the Colts previously – takes a few steps to the right. At this point, the defense should be thinking, "He wants us to chase him to the right, but Todd Yoder went left. Somebody, get Todd Yoder!" But nobody does, Hunter passes back across the field, and it's a touchdown. At that point, those of us who had predicted Denver to win just shook our heads, muttered about McDaniels starting to show his ego again, and chalked this one up as a loss.

Prediction: Miami 20, Tampa Bay 14
Reality: Miami 25, Tampa Bay 23
Commentary: Somebody has been working with Freeman on his mechanics. Still way to early to say whether or not I was wrong about this kid, but he did look promising in yet another game.

Prediction: Tennessee 21, Buffalo 9
Reality: Tennessee 41, Buffalo 17
Commentary: Man. Chris Johnson just might be the best rusher in the league right now. And Jairus Byrd might be the second-best cornerback, despite being a rookie. (I'm not prepared to have him knock of reigning cornerback king Nnamdi Asomugha. But I am going to suggest that it's reasonable to mention them in the same breath.)

Prediction: New Orleans 48, St. Louis 17
Reality: New Orleans 28, St. Louis 23
Commentary: If New Orleans can't stop turning the ball over, they'll never beat New England.

Prediction: New York Jets 27, Jacksonville 23
Reality: Jacksonville 24, New York Jets 22
Commentary: By now, every football fan in America knows about what Bill Belichick did on Sunday night, and how much he has been crucified in the press. There are some people who believe his call was at the very least "not stupid," although very few are suggesting it was the right thing to do. For the record, I understand all the naysayers out there, but I have no problem with his call – and not just because I'm a Colts fan, but because as much as I hate the Hoodie, I think his ability to strategize is second to none in the NFL, and I understand the logic of going for it on fourth-and-2 when your team has been gashing the opposing defense for six or seven yards a pop. So why am I bringing this up in the section where I should be discussing the Jags and the Jets? Because Jack Del Rio made a controversial decision (MJD says the positions coach made the decision, but I pretty well guarantee JDR was involved). He could have allowed MJD to score a touchdown to put the Jags up by 5, 6, or 7 points (depending on the outcome of the PAT/2-point conversion attempt). Instead, he had MJD take a knee on the one-yard line, then ran the clock out to try a last-second field goal to win by two. Obviously, it worked, and the media is generally talking about what a smart move that was. News flash: much, much dumber than Belichick's decision, but it looks smart because it worked. Look, Del Rio could have trusted his defense to hold on a long field against a Jets offense that hadn't exactly been dynamite. He could have downed the ball and attempted the field goal with ten seconds to go, so if the snap went bad the holder could simply take a tackle and then they could try again. Instead, Del Rio pushed it to a one-shot chance on what was, admittedly, a fairly easy FG attempt – but if anything had gone wrong, his "smart move" would have cost him the entire game when it was practically in hand with a touchdown. Congratulations, Jack, on winning. But decisions like that are why you've never taken the division.

Prediction: Atlanta 21, Carolina 17
Reality: Carolina 28, Atlanta 19
Commentary: Come on, Matt Ryan. You're better than that.

Prediction: Cincinnati 17, Pittsburgh 16
Reality: Cincinnati 18, Pittsburgh 12
Commentary: Tony Dungy said it best. "Cincinnati out-defensed Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh."

Prediction: Kansas City 10, Oakland 6
Reality: Kansas City 16, Oakland 10
Commentary: How bad is JaMarcus Russell? He was replaced by a guy who threw two interceptions in only seven pass attempts, and that guy will probably get the start next week.

Prediction: Dallas 28, Green Bay 23
Reality: Green Bay 17, Dallas 7
Commentary: Dallas just racked up injury after injury until Green Bay had a real shot at an ugly win. This is the first game for which I am happy to be wrong, but it still doesn't give me much hope for a late-season resurgence of the Pack.

Prediction: Philadelphia 31, San Diego 21
Reality: San Diego 31, Philadelphia 23
Commentary: Since when can a guy throw for 450 yards and two touchdowns and still lose???

Prediction: Arizona 24, Seattle 7
Reality: Arizona 31, Seattle 20
Commentary: The Cards never should have had to come from behind.

Prediction: New England 41, Indianapolis 31
Reality: Indianapolis 35, New England 34
Commentary: I heard on the radio that some "experts" were saying that Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 (instead of trusting his defense to prevent Manning from scoring from a punted ball position with a couple minutes to go) would basically hurt his defense's feelings and make it tough for them mentally. I thought this was ridiculous… until I heard that one of those experts was Tedy Bruschi.

Prediction: Baltimore 23, Cleveland 13
Reality: Baltimore 16, Cleveland 0
Commentary: The Browns have scored five offensive touchdowns in fifteen games. At what point does the owner suggest closing the franchise and reopening it so that they can get some good players in an expansion draft?

Straight-up win/loss:
strangefootball
9-for-15 (60.00%)
YTD: 96-for-144 (66.67%)
SI's Peter King
8-for-15 (53.33%)
YTD: 96-for-144 (66.67%)

Against the spread:
strangefootball
10-for-15 (66.67%)
YTD: 83-for-144 (57.64%)
SI's Peter King
7-for-15 (61.54%)
YTD: 80-for-144 (55.56%)

Week 11 Thursday Quick Pick

2009-11-19T23:17:11Z

More to come, but for now:

Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-5)

This time, Carolina will do the intercepting. Miami may stuff the ground game a little, but they can't prevent the pass.

Carolina 23, Miami 17

Week 10 Predictions

2009-11-15T23:10:32Z

This has been an incredibly crazy weekend. These scores were all predicted prior to the games, but I did not have the opportunity to write and post the commentary until now.

Chicago Bears (4-4) at San Francisco 49ers (3-5)

There was a lot to dislike about the Bears' defense this past week, and with a short few days to recover, I expect them to struggle against the pass. Not that Alex Smith is looking like the first overall pick that he was, but I think he does manage to get the first win of his last seven starts.

San Francisco 20, Chicago 13

Detroit Lions (1-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-1)

Not a lot to say here. Minnesota is by far the better team.

Minnesota 35, Detroit 14

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Washington Redskins (2-6)

The only thing that worries me here is that the Redskins, no matter what their problems are, have had a solid pass defense. That might be disruptive, but Denver should still win.

Denver 13, Washington 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) at Miami Dolphins (3-5)

I'm not sure if I've ever said much of anything positive about Josh Freeman. Last week he showed that he is pretty good. But it's going to take a long time for me to be convinced that he's fixed his mechanics enough to be a first-rounder. Miami ought to pull this off, but I think Tampa Bay might make a game of it.

Miami 20, Tampa Bay 14

Buffalo Bills (3-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-6)

Soooo… is Vince Young really the difference? I'm not sure, but I do know the Bills are regressing, big time.

Tennessee 21, Buffalo 9

New Orleans Saints (8-0) at St. Louis Rams (1-7)

Oh, please. The only reason I'm giving St. Louis 17 is because the New Orleans defense has recently shown a few holes.

New Orleans 48, St. Louis 17

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) at New York Jets (4-4)

I'm torn. When the Jets win, they look good; when they lose, they look like they're a good team making dumb mistakes. When the Jags lose, they look awful; when they win, they look like a good team catching some lucky breaks. I'm going with the Jets, but I'm not feeling comfortable with the pick.

New York Jets 27, Jacksonville 23

Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-5)

I still believe in Matt Ryan. He's going to need to justify that belief, though, because the Falcons' run defense is liable to let DeAngelo Williams run wild.

Atlanta 21, Carolina 17

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

I totally metronomed on this one (I went back and forth over and over) because I just had the hardest time imagining the Bengals sweeping both the Ravens and Steelers in one game. But when all is said and done, I think Roethlisberger makes just enough mistakes to let this defense beat him with sacks and picks.

Cincinnati 17, Pittsburgh 16

Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) at Oakland Raiders (2-6)

How the West Was Weak, starring a pantheon of the overrated.

Kansas City 10, Oakland 6

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-4)

DeMarcus Ware was told that Aaron Rodgers tastes like bratwurst, so watch out for even more sacks. I hate seeing Green Bay falling like this, but they keep losing when they ought to win.

Dallas 28, Green Bay 23

Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) at San Diego Chargers (5-3)

I cannot figure out the NFC East. And I cannot figure out the Chargers. Which means that this is entirely about gut feeling, despite wanting to throw stats at you to support my contention.

Philadelphia 31, San Diego 21

Seattle Seahawks (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (5-3)

Seattle struggled against Detroit. They had to rally from behind in order to win. Arizona should make sure that's not a possibility here.

Arizona 24, Seattle 7

New England Patriots (6-2) at Indianapolis Colts (8-0)

I hate predicting my Colts falling to the Evil Empire of the NFL, but let's face it – the thought of Tim Jennings and Jacob Lacey covering Randy Moss has Tom Brady salivating (and Larry Coyer sweating).

New England 41, Indianapolis 31

Baltimore Ravens (4-4) at Cleveland Browns (1-7)

I have no confidence in Eric Mangini, and Brady Quinn has no one to pass to.

Baltimore 23, Cleveland 13

Bye: Houston Texans (5-4), New York Giants (5-4)

Summary:
San Francisco 20, Chicago 13
Minnesota 35, Detroit 14
Denver 13, Washington 10
Miami 20, Tampa Bay 14
Tennessee 21, Buffalo 9
New Orleans 48, St. Louis 17
New York Jets 27, Jacksonville 23
Atlanta 21, Carolina 17
Cincinnati 17, Pittsburgh 16
Kansas City 10, Oakland 6
Dallas 28, Green Bay 23
Philadelphia 31, San Diego 21
Arizona 24, Seattle 7
New England 41, Indianapolis 31
Baltimore 23, Cleveland 13
Bye: Houston, New York Giants

Week 10 Thursday Quick Pick

2009-11-12T23:24:40Z

More to come, but for now:

Chicago Bears (4-4) at San Francisco 49ers (3-5)

There was a lot to dislike about the Bears' defense this past week, and with a short few days to recover, I expect them to struggle against the pass. Not that Alex Smith is looking like the first overall pick that he was, but I think he does manage to get the first win of his last seven starts.

San Francisco 20, Chicago 13

How Wrong Was David? Week 9

2009-11-12T22:58:07Z

How Wrong Was David?
Lucas Oil Stadium Rocks Edition

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Baltimore 24
Reality: Cincinnati 17, Baltimore 7
Commentary: Steve Hauschka isn't going to be the kicker in Baltimore much longer if he keeps shanking field goals. And how about that surprising Cincy defense? Three straight sacks of Joe Flacco?

Prediction: New England 34, Miami 21
Reality: New England 27, Miami17
Commentary: I still maintain that Miami is better than their record indicates, and I was a tad surprised at some of the weaknesses demonstrated by the Patriots, but this game went pretty much how it should have gone. No real surprises.

Prediction: Jacksonville 27, Kansas City 17
Reality: Jacksonville 24, Kansas City 21
Commentary: I would not want to be Jacksonville cornerback Rashean Mathis this week. I'm sure nobody is letting him forget that he was tackled by his dreadlocks… by the Kansas City punter.

Prediction: Green Bay 30, Tampa Bay 9
Reality: Tampa Bay 38, Green Bay 28
Commentary: I could not have been more wrong about this game. I predicted a "definite" win for Green Bay, and talked about how Aaron Rodgers wouldn't be sacked much. Oh, really? Try six times. That's not only the O-Line – that's on Rodgers, too. As are the three interceptions.

Prediction: Atlanta 20, Washington 7
Reality: Atlanta 31, Washington 17
Commentary: Matt Ryan is struggling a bit, DeAngelo Hall is still a self-centered egomaniacal jerk, and Michael Turner is one heck of a power runner. In other words, exactly what we should have all expected.

Prediction: Arizona 24, Chicago 20
Reality: Arizona 41, Chicago 21
Commentary: I can't help but wonder if Charles Tillman was really injured or if he just wanted to get out of the game so people wouldn't keep seeing Larry Fitzgerald beating the snot out of him on post routes.

Prediction: Indianapolis 30, Houston 28
Reality: Indianapolis 20, Houston 17
Commentary: This was the most exciting game I've ever seen in person. With the weirdest call. I've read about a dozen explanations of what people think should have happened and why, and I still don't understand it all. I'd try to explain it, but I honestly don't know what the rules are for the crazy situation…it's so complex, in fact, that I will let you decide if you want me to even explain what happened, or you can just pass by. Let me know in the comments whether or not you want a deeper analysis of the fumble play from the first half.

Prediction: New Orleans 41, Carolina 17
Reality: New Orleans 30, Carolina 20
Commentary: I really can't tell from the game accounts if Carolina is improving that much or if New Orleans is starting to slip a little.

Prediction: Seattle 35, Detroit 10
Reality: Seattle 32, Detroit 20
Commentary: If you want to see lousy sportswriting (lousier than mine!), you have to see the AP recap of this game. A couple lowlights: "…raising his voice as high as he then raised his game…" and "…He took his family to Krispy Kreme. Sure beat the doughnut he and his team swallowed in that first quarter."

Prediction: San Francisco 31, Tennessee 24
Reality: Tennessee 34, San Francisco 27
Commentary: Could Chris Johnson be an MVP even if the team doesn't do well?

Prediction: New York Giants 20, San Diego 16
Reality: San Diego 21, New York Giants 20
Commentary: Well, Eli did okay this time… just not enough. This is so confusing, because based on the past few weeks I would have said that Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback than Eli Manning this season… but after the games this week, I have to wonder if that's purely a pro-Packers bias on my part. I'll have to think about that in the next few weeks.

Prediction: Dallas 28, Philadelphia 20
Reality: Dallas 20, Philadelphia 16
Commentary: It's halfway through the season. Can we call the Michael Vick experiment a failure? He really should have played for Jim Haslett with the Tuskers of the UFL.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Denver 17
Reality: Pittsburgh 28, Denver 10
Commentary: Pittsburgh just painted a clean picture of how to beat the Broncos. Go no-huddle when Elvis Dumervil is on the sidelines, and the Denver defense can't pass rush enough to play their kind of ball. Interesting…

Straight-up win/loss:
strangefootball
10-for-13 (76.92%)
YTD: 87-for-129 (67.44%)
SI's Peter King
7-for-13 (53.85%)
YTD: 88-for-129 (68.22%)

Against the spread:
strangefootball
8-for-13 (61.54%)
YTD: 73-for-129 (56.59%)
SI's Peter King
8-for-13 (61.54%)
YTD: 73-for-129 (56.59%)

Week 9 Predictions

2009-11-08T01:52:55Z

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)

The Ravens' defense has been surprisingly bland this year with the departure of defensive guru Rex Ryan to the Jets, and a team like Cincinnati would love to exploit that on the strength of Carson Palmer's arm and field intelligence. However, the Ravens have a quarterback who is starting to look just as smart, and who knows how to choose when to pass and when to run. This is a tough, tough matchup to call. I'm so used to giving the Ravens a near-automatic advantage over the Bengals when trying to sort out these games, but I'm not convinced that should be an immediate assumption anymore.

Cincinnati 27, Baltimore 24

Miami Dolphins (3-4) at New England Patriots (5-2)

I tried to talk myself into calling this one as an upset – Dolphins over Pats – based on considering their previous opponents. Yes, the Pats have scored a total of 94 points in the last two games, and their opponents have scored only 7 – but their opponents were Tennessee and Tampa Bay. And while the Dolphins have lost four games, two of those were to the two unbeaten teams left in the NFL, the Colts and the Saints. In the end, though, I have to conclude that the Dolphins are better than their record indicates, but not as good as the Patriots in Foxboro.

New England 34, Miami 21

Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)

Kansas City currently has one of the league's worst offenses. Jacksonville has become one of the league's worst defenses. I think Jones-Drew will carry the Jags on this one.

Jacksonville 27, Kansas City 17

Green Bay Packers (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7)

Yes, this will be a win for the Packers. I have no doubt in my mind about that. But in some ways, this game will be a little detrimental for them. A few weeks back, the Lions sacked Rodgers five times. Green Bay tweaked their offensive line scheme, and it appeared to work against the Browns. Trouble is, there are two key words in that sentence: "Browns," of course… and "appeared." The Browns were so incompetent at pass rushing that the Packers never learned whether or not their new offensive line tweaks were legitimate. They soon after discovered that they were still severely overmatched by Minnesota. This week, they've made even more tweaks – but they're facing the abysmal Buccaneers, and any success they have at protecting Rodgers will continue to give them overconfidence.

Green Bay 30, Tampa Bay 9

Washington Redskins (2-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-3)

Injuries are going to keep the Skins' offense down. As long as Mike Smith lets Turner rush more than he lets Ryan pass – Washington has a surprisingly good pass defense – the Falcons should clean up on this one.

Atlanta 20, Washington 7

Arizona Cardinals (4-3) at Chicago Bears (4-3)

These are two teams that are seriously underperforming their pre-season expectations. The official "line," I believe, is that the Bears are favorites by 2.5; I know the Cards' offense struggled, but I have a hard time putting the Bears' defense as it stands right now up against Larry Fitzgerald and seeing them walk away with a win, even if it is at home.

Arizona 24, Chicago 20

Houston Texans (5-3) at Indianapolis Colts (7-0)

The Texans' pass defense has never been a huge threat to Peyton Manning; in the last seven games, he has thrown 17 touchdowns and only one interception. However, the rush defense can be something else altogether. In their last five games, the Texans have only given up 58.2 yards of rushing… and the Colts are currently 30th in the league with only 87.3 rushing yards per game – and in their seven games they have faced only one team with a winning record. I expect a lot of passes in this game. From the other side, Matt Schaub is having a really solid year, and despite losing tight end Owen Daniels last week, the Texans are primed for a big offensive day. In part, this is because four injuries to Colts' defensive starters in the past week. Kelvin Hayden is out for a few weeks, and Tyjuan Hagler, Marlin Jackson, and Bob Sanders are all out for the rest of the year. My pessimistic streak is pushing me towards predicting a Texans' win, but I still have faith in Peyton Manning. Plus, I have never attended an NFL game where the home team didn't win (so far, four-for-four)… I'm hoping the trend continues, as I will be in the stands for this one. (I will also be in the stands for the Week 17 matchup of the Colts in Buffalo. I'm hoping the trend stops by that point.)

Indianapolis 30, Houston 28

Carolina Panthers (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (7-0)

I'm not sure I have ever seen a team that appears as well-rounded as these 2009 Saints.

New Orleans 41, Carolina 17

Detroit Lions (1-6) at Seattle Seahawks (2-5)

The Lions' offense needs revamping. If Kevin Smith isn't ready to go, they ought to sign Edgerrin James just to see how Seattle reacts.

Seattle 35, Detroit 10

Tennessee Titans (1-6) at San Francisco 49ers (3-4)

This one could potentially be a high-scoring affair. Not because the teams are both so good at offense, but because both have such glaring weaknesses on defense. The Titans will run the ball until their backs drop; the Niners will challenge the secondary until Alex Smith's arm falls off. I'm still – this far into the season – not sold on the Niners being that great, but Tennessee stinks out loud.

San Francisco 31, Tennessee 24

San Diego Chargers (4-3) at New York Giants (5-3)

Eli and Crybaby finally meet. At first, I wasn't sure why the Giants are favored in this, even with the better record and the home game. Eli Manning hasn't looked that good and the Giants' defense has looked even worse. Then I realized that the Chargers have only beaten losing teams and their rushing game is putrid. You can probably count on Vincent Jackson for a couple good catches, but this game should put the Giants back into the middle of things leading into their bye week.

New York Giants 20, San Diego 16

Dallas Cowboys (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)

I'm glad I only have to keep my eyes on DeSean Jackson and Miles Austin one at a time. But Donovan McNabb will have to keep his on DeSean Jackson… and DeMarcus Ware, who would like nothing more than to hit McNabb so hard that those eyes pop clean out. I still can't explain how the Eagles lost to the Raiders, and I can't explain how the Cowboys… well, how they do anything, really, so I'll just level with you. I have no idea who's going to win this game, and I won't be shocked to be wrong.

Dallas 28, Philadelphia 20

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (6-1)

This one, for me, comes down to pure belief. I believe in Ben Roethlisberger more than I believe in Kyle Orton. I believe in Mike Tomlin more than I believe in Josh McDaniels.

Pittsburgh 24, Denver 17

Bye: Buffalo Bills (3-5), Cleveland Browns (1-7), Minnesota Vikings (7-1), New York Jets (4-4), Oakland Raiders (2-6), St. Louis Rams (1-7)

Summary:
Cincinnati 27, Baltimore 24
New England 34, Miami 21
Jacksonville 27, Kansas City 17
Green Bay 30, Tampa Bay 9
Atlanta 20, Washington 7
Arizona 24, Chicago 20
Indianapolis 30, Houston 28
New Orleans 41, Carolina 17
Seattle 35, Detroit 10
San Francisco 31, Tennessee 24
New York Giants 20, San Diego 16
Dallas 28, Philadelphia 20
Pittsburgh 24, Denver 17
Bye: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis

How Wrong Was David? Week 8

2009-11-05T16:54:14Z

How Wrong Was David?
I Should Be Doing Something Else Edition

Prediction: Dallas 27, Seattle 14
Reality: Dallas 38, Seattle 17
Commentary: Miles Austin now has more yardage in his first three starts than anyone else since the AFL-NFL merger. Wade Phillips owes this guy a few million, don't you think?

Prediction: Houston 21, Buffalo 14
Reality: Houston 31, Buffalo 10
Commentary: Maybe I'm just not reading the right sites, but why are so few people talking about this Houston offense? Buffalo's defense isn't that bad, really, especially when you consider Jairus Byrd intercepted Schaub twice – and Houston still racked up 31 against them.

Prediction: Minnesota 24, Green Bay 21
Reality: Minnesota 38, Green Bay 26
Commentary: Really, this game was so overhyped and the sports channels so oversaturated (foxsports.com actually had a Favre cam trained on #4 at all times so that you could never take your eyes off him if you wanted) that I don't really want to say much about this game. Except this: it's recorded that the crowd was the largest in Lambeau Field's history, coming in at 71,213. There are about 72,500 seats at Lambeau. Where were these other people? Have they truly never had full attendance? Is that typical?

Prediction: Detroit 17, St. Louis 10
Reality: St. Louis 17, Detroit 10
Commentary: Steven Jackson said, "As a rookie, I said 'That was an ugly win' and I got chewed out. I understand that there are no ugly wins in the NFL." Respectfully, Steven, whoever taught you that was wrong. But that wasn't the stupidest thing said by a Ram after the win – that goes to the player who also made the stupidest play, James Butler. After intercepting a very short pass in the end zone, all Butler had to do was take a knee and he would have had a touchback. Instead, he ran forward out of the end zone, got pushed back into the end zone, got tackled, and the Lions scored a safety. Butler's comment afterwards: "Don't ask about that dumb play. I knew it wasn't going to hurt us. I just knew we were going to win because I have faith." Oh, really? Because without that play, it's a nine-point game, not a seven-point one which is much easier to handle. And are you implying that you haven't had faith until now?

Prediction: New York Jets 21, Miami 20
Reality: Miami 30, New York Jets 25
Commentary: Rex Ryan feels that his Jets outplayed the Dolphins despite the score. Bart Scott sarcastically said that the Dolphins would contend for the Super Bowl. Well, sorry, guys, but you got whooped. Your special teams let you down big time – and special teams really are part of the game, your penalties were your fault, and to call on the statistics that show your superior yardage doesn't mean jack if you can't get it in the end zone when you need to.

Prediction: Indianapolis 31, San Francisco 21
Reality: Indianapolis 18, San Francisco 14
Commentary: The Niners' pass rush is actually a lot better than they get credit for, so the three sacks on Peyton isn't as much of a surprise as many locals thought it was. But my favorite note came from the graphic they put up about Alex Smith. The graphic indicated that he had not started a game in nearly two years, and the last game he started was a losing effort in Seattle. However, the way it appeared on the screen seemed to give a completely different indication of why he hadn't started in so long:
QB ALEX SMITH
FIRST START SINCE 11/12/07 (LOST AT SEA)

Prediction: Chicago 27, Cleveland 10
Reality: Chicago 30, Cleveland 6
Commentary: A question asked on the radio yesterday morning: which franchise is in the worst turmoil: the Raiders, the Redskins, or the Browns? I would believe whichever one you wanted to pick.

Prediction: Baltimore 28, Denver 24
Reality: Baltimore 30, Denver 7
Commentary: In case you hadn't noticed, Joe Flacco is pretty darn good.

Prediction: Jacksonville 14, Tennessee 13
Reality: Tennessee 30, Jacksonville 13
Commentary: Vince Young does look better than I expected, but the statistics don't really show that his play in this game was really only slightly better than average. He was also helped by an offensive scheme that let the running backs carry most of the load. My point is, don't go picking up VY for your fantasy team unless your current quarterback options are JaMarcus Russell, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, and Josh Freeman.

Prediction: San Diego 38, Oakland 14
Reality: San Diego 24, Oakland 16
Commentary: Fire Cable. Fire Russell. Buy out Al Davis. Blow it up and start over.

Prediction: New York Giants 24, Philadelphia 17
Reality: Philadelphia 40, New York Giants 17
Commentary: Neither of the Manning boys looked that good this past Sunday, but Eli was the worse one. His long ball doesn't seem to have the accuracy it used to – and it's not all about Plaxico being gone, because he's missing other receivers he used to hit when Plax was there. Something is odd.

Prediction: Arizona 35, Carolina 3
Reality: Carolina 34, Arizona 21
Commentary: Speaking of odd – this was downright bizarre. It's like John Fox woke up and remembered he had running backs! It also didn't help the Cards at all that Kurt Warner had the exact same issues that Delhomme had when they met in the playoffs – namely, one fumble and five interceptions.

Prediction: New Orleans 42, Atlanta 27
Reality: New Orleans 35, Atlanta 27
Commentary: The final drive by New Orleans had three of the most amazing plays on offense that I've seen this year – a leaping, twisting catch by Marques Colston, an athletic catch by Jeremy Shockey, and a backwards aerial leap into the end zone by Pierre Thomas. New Orleans and Indianapolis are now the only two unbeaten teams in the league, but I think the Saints have the advantage.
Points scored: New Orleans 273 (1st), Indianapolis 197 (8th)
Points against: New Orleans 154 (17th), Indianapolis 91 (1st)
(So far, looks better for Indy, right? Wait.)
Strength of Victory*: New Orleans .481, Indianapolis .340
*--Strength of Victory is determined by looking at the win/loss records of all defeated opponents. The Saints have defeated teams with records of 1-6, 3-5, 3-4, 4-4, 4-3, 5-3, and 5-2 for a total of 25-27, facing only three teams with losing records. The Colts have defeated teams with records of 1-7, 1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 3-4, 3-4, and 4-3 for a total of 17-33, facing six teams with losing records.
In other words, the Saints have had to beat tougher opponents, and they're scoring incredible amounts of points against them. Right now, as much as I would like to call the Colts the best team in football, I think it's clear that the title belongs to New Orleans.

Straight-up win/loss:
strangefootball
8-for-13 (61.54%)
YTD: 77-for-116 (66.38%)
SI's Peter King
11-for-13 (84.62%)
YTD: 81-for-116 (69.83%)

Against the spread:
strangefootball
7-for-13 (53.85%)
YTD: 65-for-116 (56.03%)
SI's Peter King
9-for-13 (69.23%)
YTD: 65-for-116 (56.03%)

Week 8 Predictions

2009-10-30T18:45:42Z

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

Walter Jones out? Lofa Tatupu out? There's an old T-shirt found on many college campuses that says "Go Ugly Early." Yeah. This game is gonna do that.

Dallas 27, Seattle 14

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills

A great line in the Sports Illustrated preview of this game: "He doesn't turn the ball over," coach Gary Kubiak said of [Texans QB Matt] Schaub, who has five INTs this year. Admittedly, five interceptions isn't bad. But he does turn the ball over, and there's a very good chance he won't have Andre Johnson to throw to. (Note to fantasy football fanatics – if you have Owen Daniels, play him this week.) However, the Houston defense has stepped it up, crushing the running game in the past few games (after getting run on more than a treadmill the first few), and Buffalo is one of only eight teams that has not managed to score 100 points yet this year. The other seven have a combined win-loss ratio of 7-38, which tells you what kind of company the Buffalo offense has. The weather could definitely play a factor here, but I think the Texans are overall the better team.

Houston 21, Buffalo 14

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Jared Allen against a leaky offensive line and a good quarterback who forgets to scramble at times. Sorry, Green Bay. I would dearly love to see you win this one, but no matter how loud the booing is when the Minnesota offense is on the field, it's the defense that will make you pay the most.

Minnesota 24, Green Bay 21

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions

St. Louis is last in points scored, last in preventing points, and has no rushing touchdowns this season. I don't care if Matthew Stafford or Calvin Johnson come back or not – I'm not going to give the Rams a win until they prove they can win.

Detroit 17, St. Louis 10

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

If you like the running game and gimmicks, this game's for you. Sparano and Ryan will spend as much time trying to out-think the other guy as they will trying to just play the game.

New York Jets 21, Miami 20

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts

Frank Gore is still recuperating from an injury… I think this might be closer than Colts fans will be comfortable with, but it should still be a win for Indy.

Indianapolis 31, San Francisco 21

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears

You would have thought that dealing Braylon Edwards could have cured the Browns of the dropsies, but so far 22 passes deemed catchable have been dropped by Cleveland receivers – the league high. Derek Anderson is currently the 35th-ranked quarterback to play enough snaps to even qualify for a ranking, and there are only 32 teams. The Browns are 27th in points allowed (over 25 points per game), 30th in scoring (less than 11 points per game), and 31st in total offense (under 226 yards per game). Despite how bad they looked against Cincy last week, how can you not give this one to Da Bears?

Chicago 27, Cleveland 10

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

If Jared Gaither struggles at all in his first game back since week 4, the Ravens need to pull him out and move Michael Oher back to left tackle, where he's been solid and effective. If Elvis Dumervil can get to Joe Flacco, this game will go to the Broncos. It's all about protection.

Baltimore 28, Denver 24

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

The Jaguars needed overtime to just barely pull off a win against the horrible St. Louis Rams. Tennessee couldn't manage to score a single point in a 59-0 punishment at the hands of the Patriots, and didn't even make them punt until there were less than five minutes to go in the game and the rookie backup quarterback was playing. If it were possible for both teams to lose, I would consider posting that. To me, the difference-maker in this could be that Jeff Fisher really doesn't believe in Vince Young. (Well, that and the Titans' secondary can't seem to stop a thing.)

Jacksonville 14, Tennessee 13

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers

Last time, the Chargers barely won. This time, the incompetence of Norv Turner will be eclipsed by the incompetence of JaMarcus Russell.

San Diego 38, Oakland 14

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

I don't envy Winston Justice having to deal with Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck, and I don't envy McNabb dealing with his ribs during this game. I think New York has been exposed enough that the Eagles will exploit some of their weaknesses, but Philly has been exposed enough that the Giants will make this game extremely difficult on their offense.

New York Giants 24, Philadelphia 17

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals

If Jake Delhomme even plays, it may be his last game as a starter in the NFL.

Arizona 35, Carolina 3

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

The Falcons' defense isn't quite up to snuff. Matt Ryan will have a better day than he did against Dallas, but it won't be enough to push them over the top.

New Orleans 42, Atlanta 27

Summary:
Dallas 27, Seattle 14
Houston 21, Buffalo 14
Minnesota 24, Green Bay 21
Detroit 17, St. Louis 10
New York Jets 21, Miami 20
Indianapolis 31, San Francisco 21
Chicago 27, Cleveland 10
Baltimore 28, Denver 24
Jacksonville 14, Tennessee 13
San Diego 38, Oakland 14
New York Giants 24, Philadelphia 17
Arizona 35, Carolina 3
New Orleans 42, Atlanta 27

How Wrong Was David? Weeks 6 and 7

2009-10-29T18:56:22Z

How Wrong Was David?
Special Double Edition!!! (because I never posted last week)

WEEK 6

Prediction: Jacksonville 24, St. Louis 6
Reality: Jacksonville 23, St. Louis 20 (OT)
Commentary: I'm not really sure what to say about this. The Jags were horrible against Seattle in the game prior to this one, and they needed overtime to win against the Rams. Admittedly, the stats look great for Jacksonville: 492 yards, three rushing touchdowns for Jones-Drew, and so on… but if they can't avoid turning over the ball to keep bad opponents in the game, they're not even going to sniff the playoffs.

Prediction: Kansas City 13, Washington 7
Reality: Kansas City 14, Washington 6
Commentary: How bad is it for the Redskins? Well, let's see. Their starting quarterback was benched at the half and his replacement managed only 75 yards in the second half. Security has started banning signs at the games, supposedly as a safety issue but in reality because so many of them were insulting to owner Dan Snyder and great-college-recruiter-turned-horrible-horrible-personnel-guy Vinny Cerrato. (Please, Vinny – go back to college recruiting, or at least to making execrable D-grade films like Kindergarten Ninja.) And other than a sack-for-a-safety, all the points scored against the Skins were scored by this year's "Mr. Irrelevant" – the last player selected in the draft. As I heard someone say this morning, "The Redskins are the Raiders of the east."

Prediction: Cincinnati 17, Houston 10
Reality: Houston 28, Cincinnati 17
Commentary: The Texans finally figured out how to finish a game! I'm sure it helped that the Bengals lost their best pass rusher in the first quarter. Cincy showed a real lack of preparedness from the bench.

Prediction: Baltimore 14, Minnesota 13
Reality: Minnesota 33, Baltimore 31
Commentary: What happened to defense? This is Baltimore and Minnesota, people. And there were no turnovers. None. Something is not right, here.

Prediction: Green Bay 30, Detroit 13
Reality: Green Bay 26, Detroit 0
Commentary: I know I'm jumping ahead a little bit here, but in the past couple days I heard that Green Bay had a real chance at winning against Minnesota specifically because "they've ironed out a lot of problems with their offensive line." And I just want to know when any evidence of that was seen. Detroit sacked Rodgers four times, and the following week Green Bay was protecting him from Cleveland. Rodgers is a good quarterback, but he's starting to look like Big Ben – or worse, David Carr – because he can't seem to avoid getting hit.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 35, Cleveland 7
Reality: Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 14
Commentary: The only reason I wish I had seen this game is that there were four turnovers – two from each team – within the space of less than ninety seconds of game time. Disasterball!

Prediction: Carolina 28, Tampa Bay 10
Reality: Carolina 28, Tampa Bay 21
Commentary: I can tell you right now why I got next week's Carolina vs. Buffalo game wrong. I didn't look at the stats and details of this game. I've been screaming to anyone who will listen (and sometimes people who won't) that John Fox – or whoever is allegedly calling the plays in Carolina – needed to get away from the passing game and stop trying to heal Jake Delhomme's justifiably wounded ego, and get back to the best one-two running back combination in the game. Well, in the second half they did that – only attempting seven pass plays – and it helped them win. The trouble is, it helped them win against the Buccaneers, who are looking absolutely awful. And it didn't help them win by much. This should have signaled me that there are serious problems with the Carolina defense. There are also serious problems with Dante Wesley, who seems to think it's okay to tackle a kick returner who waved for a fair catch… and to knock him unconscious in the process.

Prediction: New Orleans 34, New York Giants 31
Reality: New Orleans 48, New York Giants 27
Commentary: There's something that really, really aggravates me about this game – and that's how it's pointed out that the Giants were the league-leading defense. Thanks to my interest in sabermetrics (see Football Outsiders for more explanation), I am fully aware that the Giants only looked like the best defense in the league because of the weak offenses they played. What did surprise me about this game was how uncomfortable the offense looked (despite scoring nearly as many points as I had predicted).

Prediction: Seattle 21, Arizona 20
Reality: Arizona 27, Seattle 3
Commentary: What can I say? Seattle is back to stinking out loud and I didn't see it coming. I think I had too much confidence in Jacksonville, so when Seattle beat them down the week before I assumed they were in good shape.

Prediction: Philadelphia 34, Oakland 0
Reality: Oakland 13, Philadelphia 9
Commentary: Okay, give credit to Raiders wide receiver Louis Murphy, who laid out Quintin Mikell and Ellis Hobbs with two different blocks on the same play (the touchdown run by tight end Zach Miller). Fine. But the real loser of this game is Andy Reid. This paragraph from ESPN pretty well sums it up for me:

The Eagles abandoned the run early, only had Michael Vick on the field for two plays, allowed six sacks and were the first team in three years to fail to score a touchdown against the Raiders.

Now I'm not a fan of Vick, so don't think I'm on any kind of bandwagon for him. But I do think that when you're losing to the Raiders, you use your whole dang bag of tricks. And if you've abandoned the run and your quarterback with still-fractured ribs is sacked six times, you go back to the run. You weren't down 24-0, Mr. Reid. Run the ball.

Prediction: New York Jets 17, Buffalo 10
Reality: Buffalo 16, New York Jets 13 (OT)
Commentary: Best comment I heard: "In week four, Sanchez played like what he was – a rookie. In week five, Sanchez aspired to play like a rookie." Someone said it on Mike & Mike, and I'd tell you who but I don't remember. I'm gonna guess Mike.

Prediction: New England 31, Tennessee 9
Reality: New England 59, Tennessee 0
Commentary: The game is summed up by these two quotes from ESPN:

The Titans couldn't even stop New England when Brian Hoyer, a free agent rookie from Michigan State, took over for Brady on the second series of the third quarter with the score 52-0. He completed 9 of 11 passes for 52 yards in his pro debut and scored on a 1-yard run on his first series.

Tennessee's defense was so bad that New England didn't punt until 4:13 remained in the game.

Prediction: Atlanta 24, Chicago 20
Reality: Atlanta 21, Chicago 14
Commentary: The Bears cost themselves dearly with red-zone mishaps. Cutler threw a pick inside the ten, Forte fumbled twice in a row on the one – the second one a turnover – and they lost a fourth-and-1 at the five due to a penalty. I continue to be less than impressed with Cutler's apparent poutiness when things go wrong.

Prediction: San Diego 24, Denver 17
Reality: Denver 34, San Diego 23
Commentary: The only good thing about being consistently wrong about Denver is that most of the pundits felt the same way as I did before the season started. I'm just slow in getting on board the "McDaniels really is a genius" bandwagon. In fact, I'm still pretty convinced that the Chargers just Norved it.

Straight-up win/loss:
strangefootball
8-for-14 (57.14%)
YTD: 62-for-90 (68.89%)
desaxman13
WITHDRAWN
SI's Peter King
6-for-14 (42.86%)
YTD: 60-for-90 (66.67%)

Against the spread:
strangefootball
9-for-14 (64.29%)
YTD: 49-for-90 (54.44%)
desaxman13
WITHDRAWN
SI's Peter King
7-for-14 (50.00%)
YTD: 48-for-90 (53.33%)

WEEK 7

Prediction: Indianapolis 35, St. Louis 6
Reality: Indianapolis 42, St. Louis 6
Commentary: I'm not a big fan of over-the-top end zone celebrations, which is why I'm one of the few people who more-or-less approved of the celebration rules when they came out. I also believe in calling the penalty if the rule is on the books, so I'm not complaining that it was unreasonable to call Jacob Lacey for his "sliding into home plate and signaling safe" TD move. But I have to say, if you're going to get a 15-yard penalty for a TD celebration, that's probably the best one I've seen.

Prediction: Minnesota 24, Pittsburgh 16
Reality: Pittsburgh 27, Minnesota 17
Commentary: Despite the fact that the Steelers returned a Favre fumble for a touchdown and then a Favre interception for a touchdown, I don't blame Favre for those turnovers. The fumble was a beautiful defensive strip of the ball, and the interception was tipped off the hands of the unexpectedly clumsy running back Chester Taylor. What I blame Favre for is giving up on the interception play when he had a chance to knock the linebacker Keyaron Fox out of bounds with at least twenty or thirty yards to go before the touchdown. All he had to do was push another Pittsburgh defender – I think it was safety Ryan Clark – into Fox, and he wouldn't have scored. Instead, Favre basically flopped to the ground like a landed carp, running the risk of making an unnecessary and illegal block but instead allowing himself to be hurdled. I'm not saying that one play would have changed the results of the game, but it would have slowed things down.

Prediction: New England 42, Tampa Bay 9
Reality: New England 35, Tampa Bay 7
Commentary: Can you really call it the Patriots' first road victory of the season when you can't get from New England to Old England via road? Oh, and here's a fun pop quiz: who is the last NFC team to beat the Patriots in a regular-season game? Answer: the Carolina Panthers, on September 18, 2005. And here's one that I think is even more fun: who is the last NFC team to beat the Patriots in a post-season game? Answer: the New York Giants, in Super Bowl XLII. (Of course, that's the only way the Patriots can lose to an NFC team in the post-season, but it's still fun for me to think about.)

Prediction: Chicago 20, Cincinnati 17
Reality: Cincinnati 45, Chicago 10
Commentary: Wow, the Bears stank it up. I know they're weak at linebacker right now, but they don't even look like an actual team half the time.

Prediction: San Diego 17, Kansas City 10
Reality: San Diego 37, Kansas City 7
Commentary: Once again, sabermetrics will point out the obvious. San Diego has been rushing a pitiful 57.6 yards per game average, but managed 135 during this game. Two things to point out. First, it was against the Chiefs, so big whoopty ding dong doo. Second, that still puts their per-game average up to only 70.5.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Cleveland 3
Reality: Green Bay 31, Cleveland 3
Commentary: Free Josh Cribbs! Free Josh Cribbs! Free Josh Cribbs! Free Josh Cribbs! (With purchase of any Cleveland Browns franchise.)

Prediction: Houston 17, San Francisco 14
Reality: Houston 24, San Francisco 21
Commentary: The points of interest (to me) from this game… (1) Michael Crabtree, in one game, has more catches than Raiders wideout Darius Heyward-Bey has in his whole season so far. (2) Matt Schaub has 16 touchdown passes, beating his season record of 15 (achieved in 11 games last season). (3) Vernon Davis is the first 49er to have three touchdown receptions in one season since T.O. in 2001.

Prediction: Carolina 10, Buffalo 8
Reality: Buffalo 20, Carolina 9
Commentary: First Downs: Panthers 20, Buffalo 9. Total Yards: Panthers 425, Bills 167. Yards per pass: Panthers 7.0, Bills 5.2. Time of Possession: Panthers 34:40, Bills 25:20. Turnovers: Panthers 4, Bills 0.

Prediction: New York Jets 14, Oakland 7
Reality: New York Jets 38, Oakland 0
Commentary:

"I don't think it's me personally, I really don't. It's a bad combination of one guy doesn't do something right one time. Personally, I don't think so. Do you?"

–JaMarcus Russell
Hey, Big J? That one guy? Is you. And that one time? Is your career. Of course, there is some truth to what you're saying, because one more touchdownless game, and the Raiders will have managed to have a whole season's worth (16 games) of games with no TD in the last four years – and you've only been playing since December 2007.

"I've never been in that situation. It was kind of shocking to me at first."

–JaMarcus Russell
Really? Once again, I would like to refer to you your career.

Prediction: Atlanta 28, Dallas 17
Reality: Dallas 37, Atlanta 21
Commentary: Gotta love Miles Austin, even if – like me – you hate the Cowboys. And some seriously good work by the Dallas defense, keeping Matt Ryan rattled the whole game. Dallas isn't going to the Super Bowl this year, but at least they won't look completely helpless.

Prediction: Miami 21, New Orleans 14
Reality: New Orleans 46, Miami 34
Commentary: Down 24 to 3, and then able to come back to win 46 to 34? OK, New Orleans. I really do believe now.

Prediction: New York Giants 24, Arizona 23
Reality: Arizona 24, New York Giants 17
Commentary: Don't get too worried about Eli just yet. He's been down before and he pulls through. Give it time.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Washington 7
Reality: Philadelphia 27, Washington 17
Commentary:

"The Redskins held the Eagles scoreless… at least for the first three plays."

–Bob Picozzi

Straight-up win/loss:
strangefootball
7-for-13 (53.85%)
YTD: 69-for-103 (66.99%)
SI's Peter King
10-for-13 (76.92%)
YTD: 70-for-103 (67.96%)

Against the spread:
strangefootball
9-for-13 (69.23%)
YTD: 58-for-103 (56.31%)
SI's Peter King
8-for-13 (61.54%)
YTD: 56-for-103 (54.37%)

Week 7 Predictions

2009-10-25T03:03:19Z

Indianapolis Colts (5-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-6)

If I weren't a Colts fan, I wouldn't bother watching.

Indianapolis 35, St. Louis 6

New England Patriots (4-2) "at" Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)
(at Wembley Stadium in London, England)

Sorry, England. We really do intend to send you actual contests.

New England 42, Tampa Bay 9

Minnesota Vikings (6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

Pittsburgh is the favorite in this one, but I keep thinking about the combination of two factors: the Steelers have trouble protecting Big Ben because he holds on to the ball too long... and the Vikings have Jared Allen.

Minnesota 24, Pittsburgh 16

San Diego Chargers (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)

If the Chiefs manage to win this, the Chargers need to fire Norv Turner immediately.

San Diego 17, Kansas City 10

Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (1-5)

If the Browns manage to win this, the Packers need to fire their O-Line coach immediately.

Green Bay 34, Cleveland 3

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-3)

I still am not convinced about the Niners, and the Texans are showing some life... this is still a tough call, as neither team shows any consistency.

Houston 17, San Francisco 14

Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-3)

OK, who can suck less?

Carolina 10, Buffalo 8. Yes, I said 8.

New York Jets (3-3) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)

Okay, Coach Ryan. Reel Sanchez back in. Put your defense on Zach Miller.

New York Jets 14, Oakland 7

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-2)

Keep an eye on Wade Phillips. I think this might be the week when he finally upchucks on camera.

Atlanta 28, Dallas 17

New Orleans Saints (5-0) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)

This game will go one of two ways. New Orleans will absolutely light it up, or Miami will play the same game they played against the Colts to try to keep Drew Brees off the field. The thing is, I'm not sure the Saints can deal with the Wildcat any better than the Colts did, and I'm not 100% convinced the Saints have the right receivers to finish it out. My head says to take the Saints, but my gut says it's not that simple.

Miami 21, New Orleans 14

Chicago Bears (3-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)

Before Antwan Odom got hurt, I would have given this game to the Bengals.

Chicago 20, Cincinnati 17

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at New York Giants (5-1)

Another shootout? Perhaps... but the Giants have to get their act together quick.

New York Giants 24, Arizona 23

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) at Washington Redskins (2-4)

Here you go, Philly. This will ease some of the pain of losing to Oakland.

Philadelphia 24, Washington 7

Bye: Baltimore Ravens (3-3), Denver Broncos (6-0), Detroit Lions (1-5), Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3), Seattle Seahawks (2-4), Tennessee Titans (0-6)

Summary:
Indianapolis 35, St. Louis 6
New England 42, Tampa Bay 9
Minnesota 24, Pittsburgh 16
San Diego 17, Kansas City 10
Green Bay 34, Cleveland 3
Houston 17, San Francisco 14
Carolina 10, Buffalo 8. Yes, I said 8.
New York Jets 14, Oakland 7
Atlanta 28, Dallas 17
Miami 21, New Orleans 14
Chicago 20, Cincinnati 17
New York Giants 24, Arizona 23
Philadelphia 24, Washington 7
Bye: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee

How Wrong Was David? will be delayed

2009-10-25T02:44:09Z

Unfortunately, my list of Peter King's picks is not currently available to me, so I will not be able to post Week 6's "How Wrong Was David" until a slightly later date.

Sorry.

Week 6 Predictions

2009-10-18T16:08:43Z

I'm pretty close to the wire here, with games starting in about an hour. Because of that, I'm not going to have much to say for any of the games, I'm afraid -- I have other stuff I need to be doing.

St. Louis Rams (0-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)

MJD, MVP.

Jacksonville 24, St. Louis 6

New York Giants (5-0) at New Orleans Saints (4-0)

Best game of the week. I really think this could be a toss-up and a shoot-out, which means that instead of it panning out like my prediction it'll probably end up Giants 17, Saints 3.

New Orleans 34, New York Giants 31

Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5)

I still have no faith in Coach Morris.

Carolina 28, Tampa Bay 10

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Minnesota Vikings (5-0)

If any defense can fluster Favre at this point, it has to be this one.

Baltimore 14, Minnesota 13

Detroit Lions (1-4) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)

If Green Bay loses this one, it'll be due to turnovers, and you're going to hear a lot about Favre vs Rodgers again -- but it's really all about the O-Line. Yes, Rodgers needs to avoid sacks better, but remember that avoiding sacks wasn't exactly one of Favre's strengths either. And Rodgers will get up more quickly.

Green Bay 30, Detroit 13

Houston Texans (2-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-1)

A team with Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton, and Andre Johnson should not have a losing record at this point in the season. I don't understand what's happening in Houston.

Cincinnati 17, Houston 10

Cleveland Browns (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)

Did last week's win inspire any confidence in Mangini? If so, it shouldn't have.

Pittsburgh 35, Cleveland 7

Kansas City Chiefs (0-5) at Washington Redskins (2-3)

...based on the principle that an object in motion tends to stay in motion, I'm assuming the Skins' spiral downward will continue.

Kansas City 13, Washington 7

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)

I think this will be a tough one for both teams.

Seattle 21, Arizona 20

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Oakland Raiders (1-4)

I think this will be a tough one for one team.

Philadelphia 34, Oakland 0

Buffalo Bills (1-4) at New York Jets (3-2)

T.O. might not get a catch.

New York Jets 17, Buffalo 10

Tennessee Titans (0-5) at New England Patriots (3-2)

Boy, this looked like an exciting game when the schedules first came out, didn't it?

New England 31, Tennessee 9

Chicago Bears (3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-1)

I am so looking forward to this game -- it should be a lot of fun.

Atlanta 24, Chicago 20

Denver Broncos (5-0) at San Diego (2-2)

Denver will end up in the playoffs, most likely, considering their cream-puff schedule (they're 5-0 and still get to play Oakland once, Kansas City twice, and Washington once) -- but I think San Diego has something to prove this week, and I think despite Norv Turner being at the helm, they have a real shot at starting their comeback.

San Diego 24, Denver 17

Summary:
Jacksonville 24, St. Louis 6
New Orleans 34, New York Giants 31
Carolina 28, Tampa Bay 10
Baltimore 14, Minnesota 13
Green Bay 30, Detroit 13
Cincinnati 17, Houston 10
Pittsburgh 35, Cleveland 7
Kansas City 13, Washington 7
Seattle 21, Arizona 20
Philadelphia 34, Oakland 0
New York Jets 17, Buffalo 10
New England 31, Tennessee 9
Atlanta 24, Chicago 20
San Diego 24, Denver 17